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| November 2008 |
| Archives |
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| Monday, November 24, 2008, 4:52 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Apple Jumps 12.6% |
For the latest trading update on Apple (AAPL, $92.95), Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see today's Rob's Journal.
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| Monday, November 24, 2008, 10:36 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Hewlett-Packard Rebounds 27% |
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, $35.81) has rallied 27% from the November 13 low of $28.23. The stock is attempting to push above the downtrend channel dating back to late September. The forward P/E is 9.4 based on the fiscal 2009 (October) consensus EPS estimate of $3.80. For more on HP, see TechStock Radar—November 18, 2008.
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| Friday, November 21, 2008, 1:00 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Dell: Revenue Miss Hurts Shares |
Dell (DELL, $9.30) shares hit a 52-week low of $8.80 this morning after the company missed the fiscal Q3 (October) revenue estimate by more than $1 billion. Management said sales momentum declined throughout the quarter. While the company did beat the consensus EPS estimate by six cents thanks to expense management (mainly workforce cuts), investors don’t like the fact that Dell is simply a cost-cutting story at this point.
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| Thursday, November 20, 2008, 1:15 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Priceline.com Holds October Low |
Priceline.com (PCLN, $55.89) shares are consolidating after rebounding from last week’s low of $48.30. The October 28 low of $45.15 remains in place. On the upside, the next levels to watch are the October 30 high of $59.27 and the 50-day moving average of $62.23.
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| Wednesday, November 19, 2008, 10:00 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Research In Motion Rebounds 20% |
Research in Motion (RIMM, $47.04) has rallied more than 20% from last week’s low of $38.55. For a full trading update, Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see today’s Rob’s Journal.
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| Tuesday, November 18, 2008, 12:38 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Apple Trading Update |
For the latest trading update on Apple (AAPL, $89.19), Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see today's Rob's Journal.
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| Tuesday, November 18, 2008, 9:55 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Hewlett-Packard: Good News |
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, $33.22) shares are up more than 13% this morning after the company said its expects fiscal Q4 (October) adjusted EPS to come in at $1.03, three cents above the consensus estimate. Full results will be released on November 24. For fiscal Q1, HP sees adjusted EPS of 93 cents to 95 cents, vs. the consensus of 93 cents. This is a clear sign that management is executing when it comes to cost controls. For more on HP, see TechStock Radar—October 27, 2008.
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| Monday, November 17, 2008, 2:49 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| McAfee: Friess Big Q3 Buyer |
In Q3, Friess Associates opened a position in McAfee (MFE, $28.18) of 3.75 million shares. This was the biggest institutional purchase of McAfee shares in the latest quarter. The second largest buyer was American Century, which added 2.83 million shares and now owns 4.21 million shares. During the September quarter, McAfee traded between $30.63 and $40.97. For more on McAfee, see TechStock Radar—November 13, 2008.
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| Monday, November 17, 2008, 12:30 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Microsoft: Capital Research Adds Shares |
In Q3, Capital Research Global Investors increased its holdings in Microsoft (MSFT, $20.03) by 8.5% with the purchase of 22 million shares. The firm owns 281 million shares and counts Microsoft as its #1 position. The stock trades for less than 10 times the fiscal 2009 (June) consensus EPS estimate of $2.02.
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| Monday, November 17, 2008, 8:54 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Nokia: Merrill Sees Value |
Both Merrill Lynch and Bernstein upgrade Nokia ($12.59) this morning based on valuation. On Friday, Nokia shares fell 11% after the company reduced its outlook for Q4 handset sales. Merrill Lynch now rates the stock a ‘Buy’ and is optimistic about Nokia’s expanded product portfolio. For 2009, the consensus EPS estimate has dropped 22 cents to $1.71 over the past week.
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| Friday, November 14, 2008, 4:16 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Priceline.com Stabilizes |
Priceline.com (PCLN, $53.80) shares are holding above the October low of $45.15 even though analysts continue to cut their earnings estimates for next year. Over the past week, the 2009 consensus EPS estimate has dropped 20 cents to $5.85, indicating year over year growth of just 1%. The forward P/E based on the low EPS estimate of $5.25 is 10.2.
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| Friday, November 14, 2008, 12:46 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Microsoft: RCM Capital Q3 Buyer |
In Q3, RCM Capital Management added 4.12 million shares of Microsoft (MSFT, $20.18), increasing its position by 26%. The firm now owns 19.67 million shares and counts the stock as its #2 holding. In Q3, Microsoft traded between $23.50 and $28.50 a share.
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| Friday, November 14, 2008, 8:45 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Google Trading Update |
Following a fresh round of analyst cuts, the 2009 consensus EPS estimate for Google (GOOG, $312.08) dropped 24 cents this week to $22.39. While the new consensus represents expected year over year growth of 15%, the low estimate of $19.77 indicates growth of just 1%. At yesterday’s low of $280, Google shares had fallen 30% since the end of September.
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| Thursday, November 13, 2008, 3:32 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| McAfee Holds October Low |
McAfee (MFE, $28.56) sold off to $25.80 earlier today (24% below the November 4 high of $34), but held the October 30 low of $24.72. At today’s low, the forward P/E was 11.5 based on the 2009 consensus EPS estimate of $2.24. For more on McAfee, see TechStock Radar—November 7 & October 31, 2008.
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| Thursday, November 13, 2008, 1:27 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Microsoft Takes Out $20 |
After taking out the psychological support level of $20, Microsoft (MSFT, $18.75) shares hit a new 52-week low today on heavy volume. The forward P/E based on the fiscal 2009 (June) consensus EPS estimate of $2.04 has dropped to 9.2. The low estimate stands at $1.96.
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| Thursday, November 13, 2008, 8:35 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Apple Trading Update |
Apple (AAPL, $89.22) is trying to hold short-term support levels following a pullback from the October rebound high of $112.19. For a full trading update, Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see today’s Rob’s Journal.
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| Wednesday, November 12, 2008, 6:18 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Google Below $300 |
Google (GOOG, $291.00) fell 6.5% today on heavy volume of 10 million shares, 54% above average daily volume. The stock is down 27% since the end of September. The 2009 consensus EPS estimate has stabilized over the short term at $22.63, but will begin to trend down once again as analysts slash estimates.
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| Wednesday, November 12, 2008, 11:49 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| GSI Commerce: Wells Fargo Ups Stake |
Since the end of June, Wells Fargo increased its holdings in GSI Commerce (GSIC, $9.06) to 5.65 million shares from 4.56 million shares. The money manager now owns 11.1% of the outstanding shares. The stock is down 67% from its 52-week high of $27.32. GSI Commerce designs, develops and operates Web stores for various retailers. In early October, GSI Commerce announced the acquisition of Innotrac, a provider of e-commerce fulfillment and customer-care services. Innotrac serves more than 30 clients in the retail, telecom and direct-marketing sectors.
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| Wednesday, November 12, 2008, 8:16 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| IBM Seizes Power |
IBM (IBM, $82.74) will help bring broadband Internet services to underserved rural areas. The company signed an agreement with International Broadband Electric Communications (IBEC) to install Broadband over Power Line (BPL) networks at 13 electric cooperatives in seven states. IBM will provide overall project management (including training the line crews who will install the equipment), while IBEC will provide the BPL technology (RF signals transmitted over standard power lines) and serve as the ISP to these rural areas. There are more than 900 electric cooperatives in the U.S. that provide 45% of the total electric grid and cover 75% of the landmass in the U.S. This is the first deal of its kind to deploy BPL technology in the electric cooperatives.
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| Tuesday, November 11, 2008, 2:38 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Priceline.com Rebounds 20% |
Priceline.com (PCLN, $54.23) has rallied 20% from its October low of $45.15. The stock now trades at 9 times the 2009 consensus EPS estimate of $6.05, vs. the expected growth rate of 5%. The low EPS estimate for next year of $5.25 is up from $5.09 last week. For more on Priceline.com, see TechStock Radar—November 7, 2008.
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| Tuesday, November 11, 2008, 10:48 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Google Tests $300 Level |
Google (GOOG, $302.24) fell to $300.52 this morning after Goldman Sachs cut its price target for the stock to $475 from $520 because of an expected sharp slowdown in paid search. For 2009, the firm lowered its EPS estimate to $21.67 from $22.20, well below the consensus estimate of $22.64. The low estimate for next year is $20.74.
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| Tuesday, November 11, 2008, 9:06 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Amazon.com: T. Rowe Price Builds Position |
T. Rowe Price now owns 46.08 million shares of Amazon.com (AMZN, $48.46), representing 10.7% of the outstanding shares. At the end of June, the mutual-fund firm held 30.86 million shares. Amazon.com shares rallied 38% from the October 23 low of $43.31 before pulling back to $46.30 last week.
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| Monday, November 10, 2008, 4:24 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| MetroPCS: Wellington Ups Stake |
Wellington Management increased its holdings in MetroPCS Communications (PCS, $13.01) to 35.07 million shares from 28.13 million shares held at the end of June. This comes on top of 16.63 million shares purchased during Q2. Wellington now owns 10% of MetroPCS, according to today’s SEC filing. Last week, MetroPCS reaffirmed 2008 net subscriber additions of 1.25 million to 1.52 million. For 2009, the company sees net subscriber additions of 1.4 million to 1.7 million. MetroPCS shares, which are attempting to hold the October low of $11.12, trade at 19 times the 2009 consensus EPS estimate of 68 cents.
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| Monday, November 10, 2008, 12:04 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| VMware: UBS Global Builds Position |
UBS Global Asset Management disclosed this morning in an SEC filing that it now holds an 18.3% stake in VMware (VMW, $25.24). As of October 31, the money manager owned 16.407 million shares, up from 10.089 million shares held at the end of September. For more on VMware, see TechStock Radar—November 5, 2008.
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| Monday, November 10, 2008, 7:33 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Google: Barclays Trims Price Target |
Barclays cut its price target on Google (GOOG, $331.13) to $490 from $542 based on channel checks that indicate a weakening environment for search. The firm now expects Q4 revenue to be flat sequentially at $4.04 billion, vs. the consensus estimate of $4.31 billion. Barclays maintains a rating of ‘Outperform.’
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| Friday, November 7, 2008, 2:47 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Cadence Design: Morgan Stanley Holds 5.6% |
In an SEC filing this afternoon, Morgan Stanley discloses that it now has a 5.6% stake in Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, $3.94). The firm owns 14.454 million shares, up from 1.67 million shares held at the end of June. For more on Cadence, see TechStock Radar—November 6 & 3, 2008.
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| Friday, November 7, 2008, 1:29 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| McAfee: Turner Investment Q3 Buyer |
In Q3, Turner Investment Partners increased its position in McAfee (MFE, $30.85) by 30% with the purchase of 799,031 shares. The firm now owns 3.397 million shares. During the September quarter, McAfee shares traded between $30.63 and $40.97. For more, see TechStock Radar—October 31, 2008.
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| Friday, November 7, 2008, 9:07 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Priceline.com Sees Growth Slowing |
Priceline.com (PCLN, $47.04) reported Q3 EPS of $2.39, 29 cents above the consensus estimate, but Q4 guidance of $1.00 to $1.10 fell short of the consensus of $1.16. The company sees growth in gross travel bookings of 7.5% to 17.5% in Q4 (a seasonally slow period), vs. Q3 growth of 47.4%. According to CEO Jeffrey Boyd, the rapidly changing economy makes it difficult to predict near-term business trends. For Q4, Priceline.com offered revenue guidance of $375 million to $381.7 million, vs. the consensus of $405.3 million. The stock trades at 9X the 2009 low EPS estimate of $5.09.
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| Thursday, November 6, 2008, 4:37 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Google Trading Update |
Google (GOOG, $331.22) tested its October 24 low of $324.74 today after rallying to $372.36 on Tuesday. The forward P/E has dropped to 14.6, below the expected growth rate of 16.1%. The 2009 consensus EPS estimate of $22.67 is actually up three cents since October 28, with the low estimate now at $21.00, up from $20.88. Google shares remain in a consolidation range, but a close below $329.49 would be a bearish sign.
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| Thursday, November 6, 2008, 1:37 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Netflix Retreats |
Netflix (NFLX, $21.95) has retreated 14% from last week’s high of $25.47. A 50% retracement of the rebound off the October 27 low of $17.90 would bring the stock down to $21.69. For more on Netflix, see TechStock Radar—November 1, 2008.
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| Thursday, November 6, 2008, 8:55 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Cadence Design Systems Cuts Costs |
In a move to save $150 million annually, Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, $4.34) will cut 625 jobs, representing 12% of its employee base, plus a substantial number of outside contractors and consultants. For more on Cadence Design, see TechStock Radar—November 3, 2008.
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| Wednesday, November 5, 2008, 5:46 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Apple Trading Update |
Apple (AAPL, $103.30) fell nearly 7% today as the stock continues to drift down from last week’s high of $112.19. For the latest trading update, Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see today’s Rob’s Journal.
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| Wednesday, November 5, 2008, 12:39 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| VMware Hit By Merrill Downgrade |
Merrill Lynch downgraded VMware (VMW, $28.27) to ‘Neutral’ with a price target of $31 based on valuation following the 79% rally from the October 24 low of $18.30. On Monday, VMware traded up to $32.75. A 50% retracement of the rebound would bring the stock down to $25.50. For more on VMware, see TechStock Radar—October 20, 2008.
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| Wednesday, November 5, 2008, 9:12 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| SanDisk Adds to Recent Gains |
According to ThinkPanmure, NAND flash-memory pricing has begun to stabilize because of production cutbacks and industry consolidation. The firm expects SanDisk (SNDK, $9.96) to be a long-term survivor and benefit from the reduced competition. SanDisk shares have rebounded nearly 34% from the recent low of $7.45. On Monday, Goldman Sachs set a price target of $13 based in part on the company’s IP rights. Today, SanDisk introduces an advanced flash file system for solid-state drives that has the potential to accelerate random write speeds by up to 100X over existing systems. The ExtremeFFS product is expected to ship next year.
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| Tuesday, November 4, 2008, 3:55 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Guidance Software Rejects Buyout Offer |
Guidance Software (GUID, $3.69), a provider of computer forensics solutions, rejected an unsolicited buyout offer of $4.50 a share from privately held AccessData, the other major player in the market. The offer, valued at about $104 million, was made on Monday, October 6. The stock closed at $3.99 the prior Friday. Guidance shares fell to a low of $2.00 on October 28. As of the end of June, Guidance had $38.2 million in cash, or about $1.66 a share. Government agencies, corporations and law-enforcement organizations use Guidance Software’s EnCase platform to conduct court-validated computer investigations.
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| Tuesday, November 4, 2008, 11:48 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Myriad Genetics Pops 15% |
Myriad Genetics (MYGN, $71.36) shares are up 15% this morning after the company reported fiscal Q1 (September) EPS of 30 cents, 16 cents above the consensus estimate, on revenue of $73.6 million, vs. the consensus of $70.4 million. The company’s molecular-diagnostics business (95% of total revenue) experienced strong customer demand across all product lines, and operating margin rose to 46% from 40% in the year-ago period. For more on Myriad, see TechStock Radar—October 20, 2008.
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| Tuesday, November 4, 2008, 8:59 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Digital River Stabilizes |
Digital River (DRIV, $24.19) shares have stabilized after dipping to $21.50 last week following the company’s much lower-than-expected guidance for Q4. The stock now trades at 13.1 times the 2008 consensus EPS estimate of $1.84 and 12 times the 2009 estimate of $2.02. Digital River shares are down 53% from the 52-week high of $51.14. For more on Digital River, see TechStock Radar—October 29, 2008.
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| Monday, November 3, 2008, 3:01 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Cadence Design Systems: Okumus Holds 5% |
In an SEC filing this afternoon, Okumus Capital, a deep-value focused money manager, discloses that it now holds a 5% stake in Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, $4.33). Okumus Capital owns 13.09 million shares, up from 2.56 million shares held at the end of June. As of Q2, Dodge & Cox was the #1 holder, with 25.3 million shares. For more on Cadence Design, see TechStock Radar—October 30, 2008.
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| Monday, November 3, 2008, 11:06 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| SanDisk Rebounds 25% |
SanDisk (SNDK, $9.38) shares have rallied more than 25% from last Wednesday’s low of $7.45. Samsung’s pulled $26-a-share buyout offer now seems like a dream. But some investors are placing their bets on SanDisk at these depressed levels despite a bleak supply/demand outlook for NAND flash memory chips. Analysts expect SanDisk to lose 97 a share this year and 65 cents a share next year.
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| Monday, November 3, 2008, 8:15 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Priceline.com: Citi Sees $83 |
Citi recommends Priceline.com (PCLN, $52.63) ahead of the Q3 earnings report on Thursday based on a positive risk/reward balance. The firm says a severe recession is nearly priced into the stock, which is down from its 52-week high of $144.34. For Q3, the consensus estimates: EPS of $2.10 on revenue of $549 million. For 2009, the consensus EPS estimate has dropped 42 cents to $6.62 since the start of September. Citi cut its price target to $83 from $124.
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| Saturday, November 1, 2008, 6:12 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Netflix Rebounds 38% |
Netflix (NFLX, $24.76) advanced 8.7% yesterday on news that the company would team up with TiVo to stream videos directing to TVs. Customers who subscribe to both services will be able to instantly watch content from Netflix via TiVO DVRs at no extra charge. The two companies are in the testing phase right now, with a full rollout expected in early December. As of July, TiVo had 3.6 million subscribers.
Netflix shares jumped 30.6% last week and rebounded 38.3% from Monday’s low of $17.90. Stifel Nicolaus made a good call on Monday when it upgraded Netflix to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $25 when the stock was trading at $18.95. Netflix yesterday traded to a high of $25.47. For more, see TechStock Radar—October 27, 2008.
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| Saturday, November 1, 2008, 3:18 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Nokia Hit By Downward Estimate Revisions |
Nokia (NOK, $15.18) shares slumped 8.5% yesterday on heavy volume of 34.9 million shares, nearly double average daily trading volume. The stock traded to a 52-week low of $14.12 on Tuesday before rebounding to $16.85 on Thursday. AmTech Research on Wednesday upgraded Nokia to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $22, recommending value investors build positions at these depressed levels ahead of a mid-2009 bottom in the fundamentals. The firm admits that it might be early on the bullish Nokia call and says the December and March quarters are at risk. Earnings estimates for 2009 continue to be revised to the downside. During the past week, the consensus EPS estimate fell four cents to $1.94. At the start of September, the consensus stood at $2.67. The low estimate for next year is now $1.43.
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