|
March 2015 |
Archives |
|
|
|
Tuesday, March 31, 2015, 3:23 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Bernstein Remains Bullish on Adobe |
Bernstein believes the recent pullback in Adobe Systems (ADBE, $74.07) shares represents a buying opportunity. At last week’s low of $72.12, the stock had declined 10% from the all-time high of $80.30 reached on February 27.
The firm maintains its price target of $92, saying the company’s outlook remains bright given strong subscriber growth.
Adobe shares trade at 35 times the fiscal 2015 (Nov.) consensus EPS estimate of $2.08 and 23 times the FY’16 consensus of $3.22. |
|
Tuesday, March 31, 2015, 11:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
RBC Capital: iPhone Demand Remains Strong |
RBC Capital says its checks indicate Apple (AAPL, $125.12) iPhone demand was strong throughout the March quarter.
The firm looks for Apple to come in with revenue above the high end of the guidance range of $52 billion to $55 billion when the company reports results on April 27.
Thanks to several positive factors (including yield efficiency, supply chain pricing, mix shift favoring the 6+ and overall iPhone ASP strength), gross margin could surprise to the upside, according to the firm.
RBC Capital ups its Apple PT by $2 to $142.
|
|
Tuesday, March 31, 2015, 10:06 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Is the Nimble Storage Sell-Off Overdone? |
UBS believes Nimble Storage (NMBL, $22.01) top-line growth may beat expectations. For the April quarter, the consensus revenue estimate of $69.6 million indicates growth of 49.5%.
Nimble shares just after the open today dipped below their IPO price of $21 from December 2013.
The stock so far this year is down 20% because of concerns about a weaker demand environment across enterprise storage in Q1. |
|
Tuesday, March 31, 2015, 9:01 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Stifel Upgrades Priceline |
Stifel upgrades Priceline (PCLN, $1,149.83) to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $1,400, saying reset expectations provide potential upside from positive surprises.
Since the end of December, the 2015 consensus EPS estimate has fallen to $57.24 from $61.62, while the 2016 consensus has dropped to $67.77 from $72.90.
The firm believes the stock’s risk/reward profile is now more attractive after the recent lagging performance caused by concerns related to European macro risk and valuation.
From the August 11 high of $1,329.90, Priceline shares fell 25.5% to the January 16 low of $990.69. The stock has since rallied 16% off that low. |
|
Monday, March 30, 2015, 3:02 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Canaccord Boosts Ambarella Target |
Canaccord Genuity raises its Ambarella (AMBA, $74.29) price target to $81 from $74, saying the company has a portfolio full of highly differentiated processors positioned for growth in HD and Ultra HD video capture and compression. From the firm:
Ambarella’s lineup of application-specific video encoding processors is differentiated in terms of video quality, video compression efficiency and power efficiency. We believe leadership in each of these vectors is both significant and sustainable, and will allow Ambarella to maintain its leading share position across a variety of growing end markets.
Ramping sales to large new customers in core markets and more material contributions from emerging growth segments could lead to significant upside relative to Wall Street revenue and earnings estimates, according to the firm.
For more on Ambarella, see the March 2015 issue of Tech-Stock Prospector. Order the latest issue here for download to your Kindle or Kindle for iPad/iPhone reading app.
|
|
Monday, March 30, 2015, 11:04 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
MKM Partners Downgrades Xilinx |
MKM Partners downgrades Xilinx (XLNX, $41.90) to ‘Neutral’ following the 5.8% jump on Friday on the INTC-for-ALTR chatter.
The firm cautions that an Intel purchase of Altera (if it happens) would create a much stronger competitor, and sees little strategic fit for a second FPGA acquisition.
In addition, MKM believes the FPGA model of specialized processing becomes less favored in the current hardware communization trend. |
|
Monday, March 30, 2015, 10:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
OpCo Lifts Ruckus Wireless PT to $15 |
OpCo raises its Ruckus Wireless (RKUS, $12.46) price target to $15 from $13 based on positive U.S./Europe reseller checks and channel feedback.
While the firm says there are rough spots (including flattish European trends, mixed education checks ahead of E-rate program activity and a moderately tougher comp environment), it believes these factors have already been worked into conservative guidance/estimates.
For more on Ruckus, see the March 2015 issue of Tech-Stock Prospector. Order the latest issue here for download to your Kindle or Kindle for iPad/iPhone reading app.
|
|
Monday, March 30, 2015, 9:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Barclays Upgrades Analog Devices |
Analog Devices (ADI, $58.84) gets an upgrade to ‘Overweight’ with a price target of $70 (up from $55) at Barclays based on the belief that the company has secured multiple sockets in the upcoming iPhone 6S and new iPad to enable the 3D/Force Touch feature.
The firm expects ~80 cents in incremental EPS in calendar 2016, with the tailwind extending into 2017. For fiscal 2016 (Oct.), the consensus EPS estimate stands at $3.21. |
|
Friday, March 27, 2015, 2:04 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Guggenheim Starts F5 Networks at 'Buy' |
Guggenheim Securities starts coverage of F5 Networks (FFIV, $113.72) at ‘Buy’ with a price target of $130, calling the company “one of the best pieces of real estate in networking.”
The firm says the stock’s valuation is inexpensive for a company generating strong cash flow, seeing stable core ADC growth, expanding into security and continuing to benefit from the Cisco ACE replacement cycle.
|
|
Friday, March 27, 2015, 11:03 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
OpCo Bullish on HomeAway |
OpCo starts HomeAway (AWAY, $30.52), the online marketplace for vacation rentals, at ‘Outperform’ with a price target of $37, saying the company is a market leader in a unique and growing segment of the travel ecosystem.
The firm believes HomeAway is positioned to benefit from a strong travel macro environment and a secular shift to online travel via listings expansion and pricing leverage.
For more on HomeAway, Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see the December 2014 issue (TSP #154).
|
|
Friday, March 27, 2015, 9:03 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Jefferies Ups Infinera PT to $25 |
Jefferies raises its price target on Infinera (INFN, $18.72), a provider of optical transport networking solutions, to $25 from $17 based on increased conviction about the company’s new Cloud Xpress product, a platform for point-to-point hyperscale bandwidth interconnect applications across regional, metro and campus environments (including datacenters).
With Cloud Xpress, Infinera combines its optical engines—featuring large-scale Photonic Integrated Circuit (PIC) technology—with off-the-shelf silicon chips to deliver cost-optimized optical transport in a small footprint.
The firm believes Infinera is well positioned in the metro WDM market.
In Q4, Infinera reported EPS of 13 cents, two cents above the consensus estimate, on revenue of $186.3 million (34% growth), beating the consensus of $181.2 million.
For Q1, the company’s guide: EPS of eight to 12 cents (the consensus was seven cents) on revenue of $180 million to $190 million (the consensus was $168.2 million).
The 2015 consensus revenue estimate of $784.6 million indicates growth of 17.5%.
So far this year, Infinera shares are up 27%. The forward P/E on the 2015 consensus EPS estimate of 52 cents is 36, vs. the expected growth rate of 33%. |
|
Thursday, March 26, 2015, 3:40 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: Paycom |
After the second test this month of the 50-day moving average at $30.26, shares of Paycom (PAYC, $31.73), a provider of cloud-based HCM/payroll solutions, today are on the rebound, gaining 4.1%. There is short-term support at $29.52 and $29.14. |
|
Thursday, March 26, 2015, 11:39 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: CyberArk |
Shares of CyberArk Software (CYBR, $51.05) this morning are showing relative strength, rebounding from an early low of $49.05 to trade up 1.8%.
During yesterday’s broad tech sell-off, the stock dipped 5.5% on below-average volume.
CyberArk shares so far have been able to hold above the 50-day moving average at $48.19. |
|
Thursday, March 26, 2015, 10:06 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Citi: Avago Pullback Overdone |
Citi says yesterday’s sharp sell-off in shares of Avago Technologies (AVGO, $123.46) was overdone, calling the 6.5% pullback a buying opportunity.
On Monday, the firm raised its Avago price target to $160 from $131. For more, see TechStock Radar—March 23, 2015.
|
|
Thursday, March 26, 2015, 9:04 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Credit Suisse Lifts Apple PT to $145 |
Credit Suisse raises its Apple (AAPL, $123.38) price target to $145 based on near-term iPhone strength, with unit sales of 60 million expected for the March quarter. The firm also looks for a higher 6+ mix (a gross margin booster), representing 27% of volume for calendar 2015.
As for Apple Watch buying intentions, Credit Suisse says 10% of the iPhone installed base has expressed interest in the new product. The firm points out that the ASP for the Watch could be greater than $800. |
|
Wednesday, March 25, 2015, 4:06 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Wunderlich Upgrades Groupon |
Wunderlich Securities upgrades Groupon (GRPN, $7.74) to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $10 (up from $6) based on expectations for ramping growth in North America.
The firm cites a recent survey of 300+ U.S. consumers showing increased traction for Local deals and “pull” transactions (as opposed to email offers). Of those surveyed, 78% of the respondents who recently purchased a Groupon said they intend to buy another one within three months.
The firm notes that “push” transactions declined to 20% to 25% of Groupon’s total transactions during the past four quarters. |
|
Wednesday, March 25, 2015, 1:35 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
A Chip Dip |
As a note of caution creeps into the tech sector ahead of the end of Q1, traders today are selling off four chip stocks that they had previously run up:
*Qorvo (QRVO, $76.64) -7.9%
*Skyworks Solutions (SWKS, $94.65) -6.7%
*Avago Technologies (AVGO, $124.69) -6.3%
*Ambarella (AMBA, $68.51) -5.7%
|
|
Wednesday, March 25, 2015, 9:10 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Scoreboard: Social Media Stocks |
Here are the performances so far this year for eight key social media stocks:
1-Twitter (TWTR) +43%
2-LinkedIn (LNKD) +15%
3-IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI) +11%
4-Facebook (FB) +9%
5-Google (GOOGL) +9%
6-Yahoo (YHOO) -12%
7-AOL (AOL) -14%
8-Yelp (YELP) -14%
|
|
Wednesday, March 25, 2015, 9:05 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Pivotal Downgrades Twitter |
Pivotal Research downgrades Twitter (TWTR, $51.47) to ‘Hold’ with a price target of $51 based on valuation. The stock yesterday experienced a technical breakout above $50, gaining 6.2% on heavy volume and no specific news. With the shares up 43% YTD, the firm believes fair value has been reached. |
|
Tuesday, March 24, 2015, 12:22 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Facebook Hits New All-Time High |
Shares of Facebook (FB, $85.96) today hit a new all-time high at $86.07. The stock is working on its seventh positive session in a row. The RSI is up to 72.7. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are trending upward.
Facebook is a Tech-Stock Prospector Vulture Portfolio holding, added last year when the shares were trading at $59.35. |
|
Tuesday, March 24, 2015, 11:19 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: Google |
Google (GOOGL, $580.10) shares today are rallying 2.6% after the company named a new CFO. The stock is pushing off its 200-day moving average of $560.20. A close above the March 5 high of $583.20 would be a positive sign. |
|
Tuesday, March 24, 2015, 9:03 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Cantor: Netflix an Unbundling Beneficiary |
Cantor Fitzgerald raises its Netflix (NFLX, $425) price target to $500 from $450, saying the company offers access to one of the largest and lowest-priced ($8.99/month) online video content libraries, making it a top add-on for subscribers in an Internet TV world.
The firm points out that Netflix is priced at a significant discount to HBO Now’s $14.99 monthly fee, and should benefit from this price umbrella to justify a higher subscription fee over time. While subscriber growth remains the focus at Netflix for now, the company does have future pricing power (Cantor models a seven-year ARPU CAGR of 7.4%).
|
|
Monday, March 23, 2015, 3:07 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Momentum Alert: 4 Chip Leaders |
Shares of these four semiconductor names (all boasting strong RSIs) today hit new 52-week highs:
*Skyworks Solutions (SWKS, $102.16)—RSI 82.1 (new high: $102.77)
*Avago Technologies (AVGO, $134.65)—RSI 74.2 (new high: $136.23)
*Ambarella (AMBA, $72.72)—RSI 73.07 (new high: $73.50)
*Qorvo (QRVO, $83.40)—RSI 72.6 (new high: $83.87)
For our latest report on Ambarella, see the March 2015 issue of Tech-Stock Prospector. Order the new issue here for download to your Kindle or Kindle for iPad/iPhone reading app. |
|
Monday, March 23, 2015, 12:03 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
BofA/Merrill Initiates CyberArk at 'Buy' |
BofA/Merrill starts coverage of CyberArk (CYBR, $53.65) at ‘Buy’ with a price target of $60, saying the company offers unique solutions to protect privileged accounts, which have been targeted in many recent breaches.
The firm believes the opportunity is substantial, as organizations usually have 2x to 4x more privileged accounts than employees.
CyberArk’s solid growth rate, earnings potential and growing addressable market warrant a valuation premium, says BofA/Merrill.
The stock today is up 10% on heavy volume.
|
|
Monday, March 23, 2015, 10:03 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Citi Ups Avago PT to $160 |
Citi raises its Avago Technologies (AVGO, $135.60) price target to $160 from $131 based on valuation expansion tied to sales diversification.
While Apple (AAPL) still represents about 20% of Avago’s sales, the firm looks for the company to double its dollar content in the Samsung flagship handset.
Overall, Citi expects Avago’s wireless business to rise 44% this year (mainly on dollar content gains), above the Street consensus calling for 34% growth.
For more on Avago, see TechStock Radar—March 19, 2015. |
|
Monday, March 23, 2015, 9:04 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
BofA/Merrill Trims Yahoo Target |
To reflect the lower valuation for the Alibaba (BABA, $85.20) stake, BofA/Merrill reduces its Yahoo (YHOO, $45.03) price target to $61 from $66.
On a technical basis, Yahoo shares recently rebounded off of the 200-day moving average at $42.45, and last week closed above the 50-day moving average of $44.99.
|
|
Friday, March 20, 2015, 3:10 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: F5 Networks |
Shares of F5 Networks (FFIV, $115.84) are still trying to recover from the sharp earnings-related drop in January. The stock recently found some support around $113.25, above the January pullback low of $108.60 and the February low of $109.19.
The 50-day moving average is declining from $117.25, while the 200-day moving average is trading sideways at $119.35. A close above $120.66 is needed to indicate an upside breakout. |
|
Friday, March 20, 2015, 10:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Apple in the Car |
Stifel says it sees enough evidence to suggest that Apple (AAPL, $127.87) is working on an electric vehicle that could be on the market in five to 10 years.
The firm believes a key point for investors would be Apple’s costs associated with any significant investments in auto manufacturing. Stifel maintains its Apple price target of $150.
|
|
Friday, March 20, 2015, 9:03 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
JP Morgan Still Bullish on Alibaba |
JP Morgan remains positive on Alibaba (BABA, $85.74), saying the company owns one of the top global Internet platforms, but reduces its price target to $109 from $117 based on expectations that the search and ad-quality improvements being made will hurt near-term results.
The firm believes the changes Alibaba is making to its ecosystem should be beneficial over the longer term.
|
|
Thursday, March 19, 2015, 3:06 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Cloud HCM Winners: Paycom & Ultimate |
Shares of Paycom (PAYC, $35.01), a provider of cloud-based HCM solutions, today are up 2.3% on active volume and have hit a new post-IPO high at $35.86.
Yesterday, shares of larger rival Ultimate Software (ULTI, $170.71) reached a new 52-week high at $171.57.
For more on Paycom, see TechStock Radar—March 17, 2015.
|
|
Thursday, March 19, 2015, 12:07 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
OTR Global Positive on LinkedIn |
OTR Global says ad spending growth remains strong at LinkedIn (LNKD, $259.02). For 2015, the consensus revenue estimate of $2.98 billion indicates growth of 34.1%. The Street-high estimate is $3.07 billion.
On a technical basis, LinkedIn shares are trying to hold this week’s low of $254.01 after dipping from the all-time high of $276.18 reached on February 26. The 50-day moving average is trending upward from $248.09. |
|
Thursday, March 19, 2015, 10:08 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
UBS: Tableau a Big Data Play |
UBS calls Tableau Software (DATA, $97.21) the best way to play the Big Data trend from a mass market perspective. The firm sees several positive catalysts on the horizon for Tableau—including new products, a push to add more global systems integrators and growth potential in Europe. UBS maintains its price target of $109. |
|
Thursday, March 19, 2015, 9:04 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
OpCo Bullish on Avago |
OpCo says visibility at wireless chipmaker Avago Technologies (AVGO, $130.44) is the best it has been in years because design challenges associated with RF complexity make the company more of a strategic partner for OEMs.
The firm believes the current RF upswing cycle can be sustained for two to three years.
So far this year, Avago shares are up 29%.
|
|
Wednesday, March 18, 2015, 12:53 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Apple's Powerful Upgrade Cycle |
UBS says more than half of cumulative Apple (AAPL, $126.92) iPhone unit sales of 700 million were sold in the 5/5S/5C cycle in 2013/2014, providing a large pool of potential upgrades (and Watch buyers).
The iPhone installed base upgrade rate has improved to nearly 70% from 50% following the launch of the 5 and 60%+ for the 5S, according to the firm. It’s estimated that there are currently 426 million iPhone users. |
|
Wednesday, March 18, 2015, 11:03 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Adobe Continues Move to the Cloud |
Adobe Systems (ADBE, $78.20) last night reported fiscal Q1 (Feb.) EPS of 44 cents, five cents above the consensus estimate, on revenue of $1.11 billion, vs. the consensus of $1.09 billion. Recurring sources accounted for 70% of revenue, up from 52% in the year-ago quarter.
In FQ1, Creative Cloud net new subscriber additions totaled 517,000. The company ended FY’14 (Nov.) with 3.45 million Creative Cloud subscribers; exiting FY’15, the goal is 5.9 million subs.
Back in the October 2012 issue (TSP #128), Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers were alerted to Adobe’s big push to the cloud, as it represented the start of a major migration of the company’s core solution. At the time, Creative Cloud (introduced in May 2012) had just 200,000 paid subscribers, and Adobe shares were trading around $32.50.
Order the latest issue of TSP here for download to your Kindle or Kindle for iPad/iPhone reading app.
|
|
Wednesday, March 18, 2015, 9:08 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Piper Jaffray Remains Bullish on Priceline |
Piper Jaffray reiterates its Priceline (PCLN, $1,153) price target of $1,375, saying the stock is inexpensive by many measures, especially when compared to a group of comparable companies.
The shares trade at 20 times the 2015 consensus EPS estimate of $57.59. On the 2016 consensus of $68.11, the forward P/E is 16.9, below the expected growth rate of 18.2%. |
|
Tuesday, March 17, 2015, 3:14 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Stifel Upgrades Alibaba |
Stifel upgrades Alibaba (BABA, $84.72) to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $99 because it expects a ramp in the company’s near-term monetization efforts.
The firm is positive on Alibaba’s long-term outlook, advising investors to look beyond short-term pressures associated with the coming IPO share lock-up expiration and regulatory risks surrounding counterfeit items on the site.
Alibaba shares on March 3 hit a new post-IPO low of $80.03.
|
|
Tuesday, March 17, 2015, 12:02 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
GoPro's Big Ambitions |
GoPro (GPRO, $40.99) does not want to be known simply as an action-camera vendor. It has much larger ambitions to become a full-on media company; this helps explain the big valuation of $5.3 billion.
Today, the company announces that the GoPro Channel app has hit 1 million+ downloads on the Xbox platform. Users are watching an average of 25 minutes of GoPro videos during each viewing session, according to the company. Up next, a GoPro Channel on Roku.
GoPro shares today are advancing more than 4% in part on chatter of a GoPro channel eventually coming to Apple TV. The stock last week hit a low of $37.13.
|
|
Tuesday, March 17, 2015, 11:04 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Brean Capital: Paycom PT at $45 |
Brean Capital starts coverage of Paycom (PAYC, $32.18), a provider of cloud-based payroll/HR solutions, at ‘Buy’ with a price target of $45, saying the company differentiates itself in the payroll segment (“a sizable, splintered and sticky market”) and has substantial up-sell opportunities across its HCM portfolio. |
|
Tuesday, March 17, 2015, 10:05 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: Imperva |
Shares of Imperva (IMPV, $42.79) are trying to rebound from the pullback caused by last week’s secondary offering (priced at $39). The stock needs to retake the 50-day moving average of $44.68 on a closing basis to show buyers are back in control. The 200-day moving average continues to trend upward from $35.22. |
|
Tuesday, March 17, 2015, 9:03 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Brean Capital Bullish on Facebook |
Brean Capital starts coverage of Facebook (FB, $78.07) at ‘Buy’ with a price target of $96 based on the company’s continued mobile expansion, monetization potential for Instagram/WhatsApp and growth from ad pricing leverage. |
|
Monday, March 16, 2015, 4:14 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: Ciena |
Ciena (CIEN, $21.40) shares today gained 3.6% on active volume and are now up 55% from the October 15 low of $13.77. The stock closed today right at short-term resistance of $21.41.
The next major resistance level: $22.46 from last July. The 52-week high of $24.80 was reached last March.
During the past 30 days, the fiscal 2015 (Oct.) consensus EPS estimate for the telecom equipment vendor has advanced to $1.10 from $1.04. The Street-high estimate is $1.32. |
|
Monday, March 16, 2015, 3:02 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
CyberArk Tries to Stabilize |
Shares of CyberArk Software (CYBR, S$50.24) today have recovered from an early dip to $47.52 (just above the 50-day moving average at $46.02) to trade in the green.
The stock is trying to find some stability after its recent big run-up (from the January 29 low of $33 to the post-IPO high of $70.48 reached last month) and subsequent sharp pullback into last week’s secondary offering at $51. |
|
Monday, March 16, 2015, 12:01 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Akamai Hits New High |
Shares of Akamai Technologies (AKAM, $71.86) this morning hit a new multi-year high at $72.15. The next significant resistance, from all the way back in September 2000, stands at $72.75 and $76.75. |
|
Monday, March 16, 2015, 10:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Needham Upgrades Seagate |
Needham upgrades HDD maker Seagate Technology (STX, $54.74) to ‘Strong Buy’ with a price target of $65 following the stock’s recent tumble from the December high of $69.40. Seagate shares have been hit by macro concerns related to IT spending and the PC market.
Needham believes the sell-off has been overdone (the low last week was $52.55), as it sees demand from cloud and enterprise storage customers offsetting weakness in the PC segment and currency headwinds.
For fiscal 2015 (June), Seagate shares trade at 11 times the consensus EPS estimate of $4.89 (down from $5.22 in the middle of January) and 10x the FY’16 consensus of $5.38 (down from $5.80). |
|
Monday, March 16, 2015, 9:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Evercore ISI Downgrades Netflix |
Evercore ISI reduces Netflix (NFLX, $430.52 pre market, -1.8%) to ‘Sell’ with a price target of $380 (down from $450) based on ramping competition from both existing and emerging distributors along with content providers who are becoming increasingly leveraged to new channels via OTT offerings of their own.
Intensifying competition likely leads to increased investment by Netflix with uncertain return and reduced earnings estimates, says the firm. |
|
Friday, March 13, 2015, 4:14 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Canaccord Upgrades Intel to 'Buy' |
Following yesterday’s 4.7% pullback in the stock, Intel (INTC, $30.85) today got an upgrade to ‘Buy’ from Canaccord Genuity with a price target of $38 (down from $40).
With PC expectations reset to what the firm believes will prove to be “much more realistic levels,” the bullishness is based on Intel’s growth prospects in the datacenter and Internet of Things (IoT) segments. The firm writes:
With PC exposure heading to <50%, strong datacenter and IoT growth should emerge as primary stock drivers: We believe 15%+ datacenter and 20%+ IoT growth expectations are quite achievable for the next several years, growing non-PC sales to >50% of Intel’s revenue by 2017 and serving as the company’s primary growth drivers going forward.
Despite continued heavy mobile losses, Canaccord says Intel’s modem/SoC technology is gradually closing the gap in a quickly thinning herd of competitors. |
|
Friday, March 13, 2015, 11:06 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Dougherty Bullish on Palo Alto Networks |
Dougherty says its field checks and industry discussions indicate win rates at Palo Alto Networks (PANW, $141.61) remain healthy, with new customer acquisitions in the retail and healthcare verticals.
The company continues to capture share as organizations migrate to next-gen firewalls and away form legacy firewall suppliers. The firm says WildFire and subscription-based services (such as URL filtering) have seen ramping demand.
For our latest update on Palo Alto Networks, see the March 2015 issue of Tech-Stock Prospector. Order the latest issue here for download to your Kindle or Kindle for iPad/iPhone reading app.
|
|
Friday, March 13, 2015, 9:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Cowen Ups Google Target |
Cowen lifts its Google (GOOGL, $561.17) price target to $681 from $640 based on the company’s strong competitive position in mobile search, YouTube’s ability to capture share from the large TV ad market and the growing importance of the Play store (estimated to be worth $50 billion). |
|
Thursday, March 12, 2015, 5:16 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: Tesla |
After retreating from the February high of $225.48 (a failed rally to the 200-day moving average), shares of Tesla (TSLA, $191.07) are trying to hold the recent low of $187.60. The stock remains above more critical support at the January low of $185.
The 50-day moving average is trending downward from $205.45, while the 200-day moving average is trading sideways at $229.56. |
|
Thursday, March 12, 2015, 1:02 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Axiom Capital Sees Twitter Upside |
Twitter (TWTR, $47.07) is becoming a “must-buy” for advertisers, according to Axiom Capital. The firm maintains its $60 price target, saying advertisers are seeing good results on Twitter in terms of click-through rates, downloads and conversions.
The firm points out that e-commerce companies in the current quarter have been running successful ad campaigns targeting product sales tied to events (such as the Super Bowl or Oscars).
The potential for ramping ad spending on the Twitter platform is a growth wildcard for this year. The 2015 consensus revenue estimate is $2.38 billion (growth of 69.8%), while the Street-high estimate is $2.87 billion.
|
|
Thursday, March 12, 2015, 9:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
CyberArk Down on Secondary Pricing |
CyberArk Software (CYBR, $52.03 pre market, -6.4%) priced its secondary offering (for outside holders) of 4 million shares at $51, below last night’s close of $55.60. In pre-market trading, the stock is down more than 6%.
On a technical basis, there is a gap on the price chart at $45.99, while the 50-day moving average is trending upward from $45.39. |
|
Wednesday, March 11, 2015, 11:40 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
GrubHub Shows Relative Strength |
GrubHub (GRUB, $43.37) shares have seen a limited pullback during the recent market weakness. After a dip to $41.07 on Monday, the stock has rebounded.The RSI remains strong at 62.7, while the 50-day and 200-day moving averages continue to trend upward. |
|
Wednesday, March 11, 2015, 10:18 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: Salesforce |
After the sharp pullback from the 52-week high of $71 (reached on Feb. 26), Salesforce (CRM, $64.14) shares are trying to stabilize around current levels. The retreat nearly filled the recent earnings-related gap on the chart at $63.05. The 50-day moving average is trending upward from $60.56. |
|
Wednesday, March 11, 2015, 9:03 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Goldman Bullish on SanDisk |
Goldman Sachs adds SanDisk (SNDK, $80.17) to its Conviction Buy list with a price target of $106 (up from $100) based on valuation, increased confidence in NAND pricing/supply, gross margin expansion and upside potential from the new InfiniFlash hyperscale all-flash array product. |
|
Tuesday, March 10, 2015, 4:10 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
CyberArk Dips Ahead of Secondary |
CyberArk Software (CYBR, $54.70) today fell more than 5% ahead of the 4-million share secondary offering scheduled for tomorrow evening by selling shareholders. CyberArk will not receive any of the proceeds.
The stock has dropped 22% from its post-IPO high of $70.48 reached on February 20. The company went public in September at $16 a share and opened for trading at $25.
For more on CyberArk, see TechStock Radar—February 13, 2015.
|
|
Tuesday, March 10, 2015, 12:20 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: Yahoo |
Shares of Yahoo (YHOO, $42.63) today are testing the 200-day moving average (now at $42.09) for the second time in five sessions. Traders are keeping an eye on last week’s low of $41.97. The 50-day moving average is declining from $45.98.
Yesterday, activist investor Starboard Value urged Yahoo to repurchase up to $4 billion of its own shares, reduce annual costs by as much as $570 million and spin off the Yahoo Japan stake. |
|
Tuesday, March 10, 2015, 11:01 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Apple Pulls Back |
Apple (AAPL, $124.91) shares continue to come under selling pressure and are now off 6.5% from the all-time high of $133.60 reached last month. There is short-term support at $120 level. The 50-day moving average stands at $118.54. |
|
Tuesday, March 10, 2015, 10:08 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: NetSuite |
Shares of NetSuite (N, $91.42) have fallen below their 200-day moving average at $93.67. The RSI is declining from 35.1. There is support from October at $89.02 and $84.07.
|
|
Tuesday, March 10, 2015, 9:12 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Pacific Crest Ups LinkedIn PT to $295 |
Pacific Crest raises its LinkedIn (LNKD, $267.21) price target to $295 from $275 because it believes the company is well positioned in the B2B-focused online ad market. The firm calls out LinkedIn’s trove of data as a key differentiator.
Pacific Crest thinks the market is underestimating LinkedIn’s growth opportunity in this segment. |
|
Monday, March 9, 2015, 4:41 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Apple Preps Watch Launch |
Apple (AAPL, $127.14) shares today closed with a gain of 0.4% on the release of more details about the upcoming Watch (available on April 24), which is priced starting at $349 for the smaller Sport version.
For our latest thoughts on the Watch, Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see today’s Rob’s Journal.
|
|
Monday, March 9, 2015, 10:21 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Pacific Crest Remains Positive on Arista |
Pacific Crest remains upbeat on Arista Networks (ANET, $68.13), saying the company is in the early innings of gaining market share in high-speed datacenter switching.
Despite competitive posturing and lawsuits from Cisco Systems (CSCO), the firm has increased confidence (after meeting with Arista management) that demand remains strong for the company’s products. Pacific Crest maintains its price target of $80. |
|
Monday, March 9, 2015, 9:01 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Upward Revisions at Avago |
Mobile chipmaker Avago Technologies (AVGO, $127.89) over the past 30 days has seen its fiscal 2015 (Oct.) consensus EPS estimate advance to $8.39 from $7.50. The FY’16 consensus during this period has gone to $9.02 from $7.94.
In the January quarter, Avago, a provider of RF solutions for Apple (AAPL), reported EPS of $2.09, beating the consensus estimate by 15 cents.
Avago last month agreed to buy Emulex (ELX)—a provider of network connectivity & monitoring solutions—in a $609-million deal that could add as much as 31 cents to share to FY’16 results. The acquisition is expected to close in 2H FY’15. |
|
Friday, March 6, 2015, 11:08 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Piper Jaffray Sets Proofpoint PT at $65 |
Piper Jaffray starts coverage of Proofpoint (PFPT, $57.37), a provider of cloud-based security solutions, at ‘Overweight’ with a price target of $65.
Last year, Proofpoint’s revenue rose 42% to $195.6 million; billings advanced 46%.
For 2015, the revenue guidance range is $245 million to $247 million, with midpoint growth at 25.7%. The consensus estimate of $248.5 million (now above the high end of the guide) indicates growth of 27.1%.
|
|
Friday, March 6, 2015, 10:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: ChannelAdvisor |
Shares of ChannelAdvisor (ECOM, $10.24) are trying to push off of the short-term base that has formed since the middle of January following the sharp plunge (caused by the negative Q4 preannouncement), which created the gap on the price chart at $20.94. The RSI has rebounded to 50.2.
The 50-day moving average is on the decline from $12.58 and the 200-day moving average is trending downward from $17.20.
|
|
Friday, March 6, 2015, 9:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Wunderlich Positive on LinkedIn |
Wunderlich Securities reiterates its LinkedIn (LNKD, $268.34) price target of $300, saying improving conditions for workers and the increased number of job postings on the site should continue to help engagement and demand for the Talent Solutions unit.
The firm looks for the new Sales Navigator offering to gain momentum this year as social selling becomes more common on both an individual basis and as part of corporate training.
Wunderlich now has increased confidence in LinkedIn’s ability to meet and exceed the high expectations for 2015. |
|
Thursday, March 5, 2015, 4:36 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Qualys Hits New All-Time High |
Shares of Qualys (QLYS, $49.74), a provider of cloud-based security solutions, today rose 4.7% on heavy volume (40% above average daily volume) and hit a new all-time high at $50. The RSI is up to 68.4.
For more on Qualys, see TechStock Radar—February 10, 2015. |
|
Thursday, March 5, 2015, 3:32 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
In View: Ambarella |
After rising 7% yesterday (and hitting a new all-time high at $68.50) following a bullish fiscal Q1 (April) outlook, shares of chipmaker Ambarella (AMBA, $64.72) today are taking a break, dipping just over 4%.
The company has been getting lot of attention lately (the stock is up 28% YTD) because its video processor chips are used in GoPro (GPRO) action cameras. In addition, Ambarella is supplying the chips for Xiaomi’s new low-priced wearable camera.
Looking ahead, Ambarella is expected to benefit from a new generation of compact, wearable high-def video cameras for police and other security applications. Additional use cases for the company’s video processors: commercial drones, consumer-focused security monitoring and auto-related applications.
For FQ1, Ambarella expects revenue of $64 million to $68 million, vs. the consensus estimate of $58.9 million. In the January quarter, revenue rose 62%, to $64.7 million, easily topping the consensus of $59.3 million.
For FY’16 (Jan.), the latest consensus revenue estimate of $280.8 million indicates growth of 28.7%; per-share earnings are expected to come in at $2.16, vs. $2.00 in FY’15. |
|
Thursday, March 5, 2015, 10:06 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: Apple |
Apple (AAPL, $127.86) shares continue to retreat from the all-time high of $133.60 reached on February 24. The stock is approaching short-term support at $126.61. The 50-day moving average is on the rise from $117.72. |
|
Thursday, March 5, 2015, 9:04 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
RBC Capital Remains Bullish on Mobileye |
RBC Capital remains upbeat on Mobileye (MBLY, $34.81), the leading provider of camera-based driver assistance systems.
Mobileye shares, trading well below the 52-week high of $60.28, have been beaten up on concerns about valuation and new competition.
The company yesterday announced that it won a production contract for its new EyeQ4 SoC with a premium European car manufacturer (production to start in early 2018).
For 2015, the consensus revenue estimate of $218.6 million indicates growth of 52.2%. Per-share earnings for the year are expected to come in at 39 cents, up from 21 cents last year.
For more on Mobileye, Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see the September 2014 issue (TSP #151).
|
|
Wednesday, March 4, 2015, 4:36 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Facebook Shows Relative Strength |
Shares of Facebook (FB, $80.89) today showed relative strength, recovering from an early low of $78.85 to finish with a gain of 1.6%.
The stock acted well yesterday, rebounding from a dip to $78.52.
Both the 50-day moving average ($77.55) and 200-day moving average ($73.70) continue to trend upward. |
|
Wednesday, March 4, 2015, 11:04 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: Yahoo |
Shares of Yahoo (YHOO, $42.81) this morning tested the 200-day moving average at $41.90. The 50-day moving average is trending downward from $46.54.
After ending 2014 at $50.51, Yahoo shares are down 15% YTD. The 52-week high from November stands at $52.62. |
|
Wednesday, March 4, 2015, 10:03 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
SanDisk Ready to Disrupt |
Bernstein sees the SanDisk (SNDK, $80.84) launch of InfiniFlash, an all-flash scale-out storage system for BigData workloads, as very disruptive.
The firm maintains its $100 price target on SanDisk, saying the market does not understand the extent of disruption that could be caused by InfiniFlash.
Bernstein believes the product is competitive with other all-flash offerings on the market (as well as HDD) for Big Data applications. |
|
Wednesday, March 4, 2015, 9:01 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: Yelp |
Following the sharp drop to the February low of $42.10, Yelp (YELP, $48.58) shares have stabilized in the upper $40s. There is short-term resistance at $49.05 and support at $46.50. The stock remains below its 50-day moving average of $51.41.
Last week, Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of Yelp at ‘Overweight’ with a price target of $62. |
|
Tuesday, March 3, 2015, 4:21 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: Nimble Storage |
Shares of Nimble Storage (NMBL, $25.72) today showed relative strength, gaining 1.4%, after management gave a bullish presentation at the Pacific Crest tech conference, saying the company has a lot of opportunity in hybrid storage because this is an area where legacy vendors haven’t kept pace in terms of innovation.
Nimble shares retook the 50-day moving average at $25.35 on a closing basis. The next level to watch on the upside is the 200-day moving average at $26.49. |
|
Tuesday, March 3, 2015, 2:04 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
OpCo Boosts Apple Target |
OpCo ups its Apple (AAPL, $129.01) price target to $155 from $130 based on a more positive outlook for the upcoming Watch product cycle. The firm sees the Watch as yet another excellent example of Apple’s expertise in human interface design.
|
|
Tuesday, March 3, 2015, 10:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Imperial Capital: PANW PT to $165 |
Imperial Capital raises its Palo Alto Networks (PANW, $142.58) price target to $165 from $140 based on continued solid fundamentals (the company last night reported its third consecutive quarter of greater than 50% growth in revenue and billings) and improving leverage (FQ2 operating margin of 12.4% rose 340 basis points from the year-ago level).
|
|
Tuesday, March 3, 2015, 9:01 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
UBS Lifts Google Target |
UBS raises its Google (GOOGL, $575.02) price target to $670 from $630 because it believes the company is better positioned than many critics think, saying the core search business still has significant runway and that the mobile unit (including Google Play) has plenty of growth opportunities. Looking ahead, UBS believes the potential for cash return to shareholders could be a major upside driver for the stock. |
|
Monday, March 2, 2015, 2:25 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
BofA/Merrill Upgrades Google |
BofA/Merrill upgrades Google (GOOGL, $574.24) to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $650 (up from $580) based on valuation, early signs of renewed product momentum and accelerating growth in gross profit. |
|
Monday, March 2, 2015, 11:06 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Chart Watch: CyberArk |
Shares of CyberArk Software (CYBR, $58.30) continue to come under selling pressure (falling 3.3% this morning) following the sharp rally to the February 20 high of $70.48 from a late-January low of $33.
There is a gap on the price chart at $45.99 from last month. The 50-day moving average is trending upward from $43.01.
|
|
Monday, March 2, 2015, 10:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Axiom Capital Bullish on Facebook |
Axiom Capital starts Facebook (FB, $79.31) at ‘Buy’ with a price target of $105 because it views the company as one of the best ways to play the shift of advertising dollars to mobile. Advertising dollars will follow engaged users. The firm sees multiple potential $1-billion revenue opportunities for Facebook over the next two to three years. |
|
Monday, March 2, 2015, 9:17 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
Morgan Stanley Ups Apple PT to $160 |
Morgan Stanley raises its Apple (AAPL, $128.46) price target to $160 from $133 (the firm’s Bull Case target goes to $190) based on the company’s strong platform and accelerated pace of category expansion. The Apple ecosystem is getting more robust, with users buying multiple products and services (something that then attracts more developers/partners). |
|
Monday, March 2, 2015, 9:04 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
H-P to Acquire Aruba Networks |
Aruba Networks (ARUN, $24.81), a provider of WLAN infrastructure solutions, will be acquired by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) for $24.67 a share in cash in a deal valued at $2.7 billion (net of cash and debt).
Aruba shares last week jumped 21% in one session after a Bloomberg report said the two companies were close to an agreement. As recently as February 5, Aruba shares traded as low as $15.65.
The acquisition will improve H-P’s competitive position in the wireless networking market against larger rival Cisco Systems (CSCO).
Aruba Networks is a Tech-Stock Prospector Small-Cap Portfolio holding, added when the stock was trading at $14.76.
|