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| September 2008 |
| Archives |
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| Saturday, September 06, 2008, 8:01 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| VeriSign: Time For That Buyback |
VeriSign (VRSN, $28.67) shares on Friday hit a new 52-week low of $27.45. The stock took out the August 7 intraday low of $28.52, but managed to close above it thanks the afternoon rally. VeriSign has fallen 34% from its June 4 high of $42.50. Management needs to put that $1-billion buyback to work at these depressed levels. For more on VeriSign, see TechStock Radar—August 14 and August 11, 2008.
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| Saturday, September 06, 2008, 11:39 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Sourcefire Holds Up |
Shares of Sourcefire (FIRE, $7.93) have managed to remain above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The stock set a series of higher lows from the July 11 low of $6.51. At the end of July, Sourcefire, a provider of network-security solutions, rejected a takeover offer of $8.25 a share from privately held Barracuda Networks. In Q2, revenue rose 42% to $16.0 million. The company, which has no debt and $104.1 million in cash & investments, is expected to turn profitable in the December quarter. The market cap is just $203 million.
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| Friday, September 05, 2008, 5:19 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Nokia Nicks Neuberger Berman |
Nokia (NOK, $20.62) shares closed down 7.6% today and hit a new 52-week low of $19.25. Nokia ended 2007 at $38.39, putting the YTD loss at 46%.
Some money managers decided to cut and run in the June quarter, when the stock traded as high as $34.90 and as low as $23.61. Columbus Circle Investors dumped its entire 6.732-million share position and Ivory Investment Management cleared out all of its 4.076 million shares.
But Neuberger Berman used the weakness to accumulate more Nokia shares. The firm was the biggest buyer in Q2, picking up 15.13 million shares. At the end of June, Neuberger Berman owned 20.4 million shares and was among the top 10 holders of Nokia.
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| Friday, September 05, 2008, 3:52 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| SanDisk: Traders Speculate on Buyout |
Options traders are betting that a SanDisk (SNDK, $17.68) buyout (if it happens) would take place above $20 a share. The highest volume is in the September 17.50 and 20 calls, which expire in two weeks. There’s also heavy activity in the October 20 calls and moderate volume in the October 22.50 calls.
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| Friday, September 05, 2008, 1:25 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Google Trading Update |
Google (GOOG, $450.13) shares have rallied from the morning low of $440.08. But the stock remains in a downtrend channel from the May highs. While the RSI is pushing into oversold territory, a close below $438.08 could signal a move to test the March lows in the $412 to $413 area.
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| Friday, September 05, 2008, 10:08 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| SanDisk: Deal or No Deal? |
Cowen says a Samsung purchase of SanDisk (SNDK, $17.01) doesn’t make strategic or economic sense for Samsung. The firm thinks Samsung would be better off striking a supply partnership agreement. Citi is skeptical as well, but Goldman can get behind a deal given SanDisk’s current valuation.
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| Friday, September 05, 2008, 9:43 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Nokia Off 10%; Galleon Feels the Pain |
Nokia (NOK, $20.01) is down 10.3% at the open after the company said its Q3 worldwide mobile device market share would fall below the 40% share it had in Q2.
Galleon Management was a big buyer of Nokia in the June quarter and counts the stock among its 10 largest holdings. See TechStock Radar—August 16, 2008.
Also, BofA made a bad call in June when it recommended buying Nokia on weakness when the stock was trading around $26 a share. At the time, the firm lowered its price target to $37 from $40.
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| Friday, September 05, 2008, 7:43 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| SanDisk in Play |
SanDisk (SNDK, $17.00 pre market) shares are up 26% in pre-market activity on the possibility of a buyout by Samsung Electronics. SanDisk issued a statement saying that it periodically has conversations with multiple parties, including Samsung, regarding a variety of potential business opportunities, but that it would not comment on market rumors or speculation.
SanDisk has $1.3 billion in cash & short-term investments on the balance sheet. It also has long-term investments of $1.23 billion matched against convertible long-term debt of $1.225 billion. In a buyout, SanDisk could be worth around $20 a share.
For more on SanDisk, see TechStock Radar--August 3 and August 14, 2008.
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| Friday, September 05, 2008, 7:28 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Cree: Primecap Builds Position |
After increasing its position in Cree (CREE, $21.26) by 59% in Q2 with the purchase of 3.215 million shares, Primecap Management upped its holdings to 8.879 million shares at the end of August from 8.638 million shares at the end of June. The money manager was the biggest buyer in Q2, when the stock traded between $31.80 and $22.60. Primecap now owns 10.1% of the outstanding shares of Cree, which supplies chips and components for LEDs. For fiscal 2009 (June), the revenue estimate of $591.8 million indicates expected growth of 20%. The stock, which is down 22.6% YTD, trades at 43 times the FY ‘09 consensus EPS estimate of 49 cents, above the expected growth rate of 32%.
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| Thursday, September 04, 2008, 5:10 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Tech Sell-Off Turns Nasty |
The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.2% today on concerns about a continued slowdown in tech spending. Ciena saw its share price cut by 25% after the company said its largest service-provider customers were delaying orders. According to the Bespoke Investment Group sector snapshots, the tech sector is in oversold territory. Check out the latest analysis here.
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| Thursday, September 04, 2008, 3:23 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Apple Falters |
At the earlier low of $160.81, Apple (AAPL, $163.38) shares had dropped nearly 11% from the August 14 high of $180.45. For the latest trading update, Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see today’s Rob’s Journal.
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| Thursday, September 04, 2008, 11:16 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Emulex Rally Loses Steam |
Emulex (ELX, $12.86) shares have fallen more than 10% from the August high and have nearly closed the gap on the price chart at $12.71 from August 11. The stock failed to take out its 200-day moving average at $14.27 on the rally from the July low of $9.77. The 50-day moving average is trending sideways at $12.20. For more on Emulex, see TechStock Radar—August 24, 2008.
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| Thursday, September 04, 2008, 8:13 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| ComScore: OpCo Sees Value |
Oppenheimer recommends buying ComScore (SCOR, $19.95) on weakness. The stock has dropped nearly 17% from its August high of $24 on concerns about increased competition from Google. ComScore shares trade at 4.8X estimated 2008 revenue and 3.7X estimated 2009 revenue.
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| Thursday, September 04, 2008, 7:36 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Aladdin Raises Guidance |
Aladdin Knowledge Systems (ALDN, $12.76), a provider of IT-security solutions, completes its $65-million purchase of the SafeWord product line from Secure Computing and raises 2008 guidance. The company sees non-GAAP EPS of 67 cents to 77 cents, above previous guidance of 48 cents to 56 cents, on revenue of $124 million to $132 million, vs. previous guidance of $112 million to $120 million. Management expects the SafeWord authentication product to have an immediate positive impact on earnings. At the end of August, Aladdin rejected a $13-a-share buyout offer from Vector Capital.
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| Wednesday, September 03, 2008, 5:02 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| VeriFone +4% on Volume |
VeriFone (PAY, $20.79) finished up 4% today on active volume. The stock took out the February high of $21.12 earlier in the session before pulling back. A close above $21.12 sets up a potential move to fill the gap on the price chart at $23.16 from January 2. There’s also resistance at $24.50 from December. For more on VeriFone, see TechStock Radar—August 25, 2008.
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| Wednesday, September 03, 2008, 1:09 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Research in Motion Headed Lower? |
Research in Motion (RIMM, $115.31) has dropped nearly 15% from the August 11 high of $135.00. For the latest trading update, Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see today’s Rob’s Journal.
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| Wednesday, September 03, 2008, 8:53 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| IBM Still Falling |
IBM (IBM, $118.41) shares yesterday took out short-term support at $119.10. The next level of interest on the downside is the July low of $116.60. The 200-day moving average is rising from $115.95. For more on IBM, see TechStock Radar—September 1, 2008.
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| Wednesday, September 03, 2008, 8:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| McAfee: Jefferies vs. FBR |
Jefferies raises its price target on IT-security provider McAfee (MFE, $39.80) to $46 from $38 based on the expectation that the company can easily meet September guidance, while FBR downgrades the stock to ‘Underperform’ with a price target of $33 based on increased competition and cuts in IT budgets. McAfee shares trade at 20 times the 2008 consensus EPS estimate of $1.97, vs. the expected growth rate of 12.6%. In August, the stock rose 20.8%.
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| Tuesday, September 02, 2008, 6:00 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Infinity Pharma: OrbiMed Advisors Ups Stake |
Sam Isaly’s OrbiMed Advisors ($3.66 billion in long equity assets) disclosed in an SEC filing today that it now has a 5% stake in Infinity Pharmaceuticals (INFI, $7.62). As of August 26, the money manager owned 995,200 shares, up from 553,750 shares held at the end of June. In Q2, Orbimed increased its position by 38% with the purchase of 151,250 shares. Infinity has a market cap of just $150 million.
Infinity is in the drug-development phase with IPI-504, a heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) inhibitor. Hsp90, a molecule that maintains client proteins in a cell, is an emerging therapeutics target for the treatment of cancer. Many cancers result from specific mutations of these proteins. In certain studies, the inhibition of Hsp90 has been shown to lead to the degradation of these proteins and cell death. Also, oncogenic client proteins that have become resistant to approved targeted therapies have been shown to remain sensitive to Hsp90 inhibition.
Infinity is in the Phase 2 portion of a Phase 1/2 study in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The company anticipates reporting preliminary results of the Phase 2 portion of this trial by the end of the year. The agent also is being tested in patients with refractory gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). Infinity is jointly developing IP-504 with AstraZeneca/MedImmune.
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| Tuesday, September 02, 2008, 4:17 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Microsoft: Dow Dog |
Microsoft (MSFT, $27.09) is one of the worst performers in the Dow 30 this year, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Hmm, I wonder why. Mix a failed bid for Yahoo put together by a bumbling management team with competitor Google attacking from all sides. No wonder Microsoft trades for less than 13 times forward earnings.
Check out the Bespoke article here.
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| Tuesday, September 02, 2008, 12:37 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Priceline.com: Credit Suisse Sees $145 |
Credit Suisse thinks Priceline.com (PCLN, $98.25) can trade back to $145. The firm says the stock is undervalued based on its 2009 EPS estimate of $7.00 a share. The price target indicates a forward P/E of 20.7, below the firm’s estimated EPS growth rate of 23.9%. For more on Priceline.com, see TechStock Radar—August 29, 2008.
Thomas Weisel and Citi recently upgraded Priceline.com. See TechStock Radar—August 15 and July 28, 2008.
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| Tuesday, September 02, 2008, 8:24 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| NetScout Systems: Brean Murray Sees $17 |
Brean Murray raises its price target on NetScout Systems (NTCT, $14.90) to $17 from $15 based on positive momentum from the Network General acquisition. For more on NetScout, see TechStock Radar—August 28, 2008.
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| Tuesday, September 02, 2008, 8:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Amylin Pharma: Lazard Turns Bullish |
Lazard upgrades Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN, $21.98) to ‘Buy’ following the recent plunge in the stock on the overdone Byetta concerns. The firm says high-risk investors now have an attractive entry point. This is the same thing I said last week. For more on Amylin, see TechStock Radar—August 28, 2008.
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| Tuesday, September 02, 2008, 7:46 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Google Undervalued? |
Stanford upgrades Google (GOOG, $463.29) to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $550 based on valuation and market-share gains in the U.S. search business. The firm says expectations are modest for the September quarter. For more on Google, see TechStock Radar—August 27, 2008.
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| Monday, September 01, 2008, 4:02 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| IBM Loses Momentum |
IBM (IBM, $121.73) shares last week suffered their third weekly loss in a row. Since hitting a high of $130.93 on July 24, the stock has dropped 7%, bringing the forward P/E down to 13.8 from 14.9, vs. the expected growth rate of 23.7%. For 2009, growth is expected to slow to 10.4%. On a technical basis, IBM broke below the uptrend line dating back to the January low. There’s short-term support at $119.10. The 200-day moving average is rising from $115.87.
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| Monday, September 01, 2008, 11:43 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Money Manager Favorite |
Shares of this promising biotech company, which has a successful cancer drug on the market, were under accumulation in Q2 by several money managers, including a few savvy healthcare-focused firms. For details, Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see today’s Rob’s Journal.
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| Monday, September 01, 2008, 10:09 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar |
| Sciele Pharma Snags 61% Premium in Buyout |
Sciele Pharma (SCRX, $19.27) has agreed to be acquired by Japan’s Shionogi & Co. for $31 a share in a cash deal worth $1.42 billion, including $325 million in convertible-bond redemptions. In the latest quarter, Sciele generated 58% of its revenue from cardiovascular and diabetes products, while women’s health and pediatric products accounted for 23% and 19% of revenue, respectively. The company is best known for its blood-pressure drug Sular, which now faces generic competition.
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