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TechStock Radar
E-mail: Rob@techstockprospector.com
Technorati
January 2012
Archives
 
Tuesday, January 31, 2012, 8:27 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Facebook IPO Watch

Facebook could file its IPO paperwork as early as tomorrow morning or after the close of trading tomorrow. The deal, expected to raise between $5 billion and $10 billion, could value the company at between $75 billion and $100 billion.

 
Tuesday, January 31, 2012, 11:38 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Zynga Rebounds 33%

Zynga (ZNGA, $10.26) traded up to $10.64 this morning before traders took some profits. At that high, the stock had rebounded 33.5% from its January low of $7.97.

 

For more on Zynga, see TechStock Radar—January 24, 2012.

 
Tuesday, January 31, 2012, 9:37 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple Consensus Ramps Up

Apple (AAPL, $457.36) shares hit a new 52-week high at $457.50. The fiscal 2012 (Sept.) consensus EPS estimate is up to $42.14 from $41.76 last week. The high estimate is $46.40. Prior to the fiscal Q1 earnings report, the consensus was $35.22.

 
Monday, January 30, 2012, 5:18 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Juniper's Bleak Growth Outlook

The 2012 consensus EPS estimate for Juniper Networks (JNPR, $21.09) indicates a second year in a row of declining earnings.  


The new estimate of $1.08 is down from $1.43 at the end of December. Revenue this year is expected to be up just 2.5%.

 

For 2011, per-shares earnings fell to $1.19 from $1.32, a decline of 10%.

 

Perhaps it’s time for Juniper to jump-start its growth with a smart acquisition or two. The company has $4.3 billion in cash & investments on the balance sheet, about half of which is located onshore.

 
Monday, January 30, 2012, 1:47 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Oracle Trading Update

Oracle (ORCL, $28.61) share are holding around the 50-day moving average at $28.66. The stock has closed the gap on the price chart at $28.87 caused by the fiscal Q2 disappointment. It needs to clear short-term resistance at $28.95 to indicate a continuation of the rally off the December low of $24.91.

 
Monday, January 30, 2012, 10:15 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
MicroStrategy's Record Quarter

MicroStrategy (MSTR, $115.05) reports Q4 EPS of 81 cents, 13 cents below the consensus estimate, on record revenue of $160.3 million (+15.2% year over year), in line with the consensus. The company does not offer guidance, so it’s not surprising when it beats or misses the EPS consensus by a wide margin.

 

Product license revenue rose 14% to $54.5 million. Product support and other services revenue associated with the core business-intelligence unit advanced 16% to $99.5 million.

 

MicroStrategy ended the quarter with $199.6 million in cash & investments, up from $174.1 million at the end of 2010.

 
Friday, January 27, 2012, 5:03 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Informatica Jumps 13% on Q4 Report

Shares of Informatica (INFA, $43.48), a provider of data-integration solutions, jumped more than 13% today on heavy volume after the company reported Q4 EPS of 47 cents, three cents above the consensus estimate, on revenue of $227.1 million (+14.7% year over year), vs. the consensus of $226.1 million.

 

The stock traded down to around $34 earlier this month from the November high of $50.75 on concerns that longer sales cycles would prevent Informatica from making its Q4 numbers.

 

But the company is benefiting from solid demand for Informatica 9.1, the first unified data-integration platform designed to handle Big Data.

 

For Q1, the company sees EPS of 34 cents (the consensus is 33 cents) on revenue of $187 million to $197 million (the consensus is $195.3 million). For 2012, revenue guidance is maintained at $880 million to $910 million, vs. the consensus of $898.9 million.

 
Friday, January 27, 2012, 2:00 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple Estimates Ramp Up

Following that mega quarter, Apple (AAPL, $446) earnings estimates have ramped up across the board. The fiscal 2012 (Sept.) consensus EPS estimate jumped to $41.76 from $35.22 and the fiscal 2013 consensus went to $46.59 from $39.56. The high estimate for the current fiscal year is all the way up at $46.40. Apple shares trade at just 10.6 times the FY12 consensus.

 
Friday, January 27, 2012, 10:32 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Morgan Keegan Cautious on Juniper

Morgan Keegan cuts Juniper Networks (JNPR, $20.27) to ‘Market Perform’ with a price target of $20 as a response to last night’s poor Q1 guidance. The firm says it is difficult to tell if Juniper management is being overly conservative or if there are fundamental changes going on in the business.

 

One analyst on the conference call last night pointed out that Q1 would mark the fifth quarter in a row of sequential declines in Juniper’s service provider business.  The company generates 60% of its revenue from this segment, so this is a significant metric.

 

Juniper management did not really answer the question when asked if the service provider business would bounce back in the next two quarters. That kind of hazy outlook is causing a 9% sell-off in the stock today.

 
Thursday, January 26, 2012, 4:29 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Juniper Offers Weak Q1 Guidance

Juniper Networks (JNPR, $20.91) reports Q4 EPS of 28 cents on revenue of $1.12 billion, in line with the negative pre-announcement from earlier this month. At the time, the company blamed weakness in the U.S. service provider business.

 

For Q1, Juniper offers downbeat guidance: EPS of 11 cents to 14 cents (the consensus is 26 cents) on revenue of $960 million to $990 million, below the consensus of $1.1 billion.

 
Thursday, January 26, 2012, 12:15 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Android Grabs Q4 Tablet Market Share

According to research firm Strategy Analytics, Q4 global tablet shipments totaled 26.8 million units, an increase of 150% year over year.

 

Android tablets had a 39.1% share, up from 29% in the year-ago quarter. The Apple iOS share dipped to 57.6% from 68.2% during the same period.

 

For all of 2011, global tablet shipments surged 260% to 66.9 million units.

 
Thursday, January 26, 2012, 9:54 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
VMware Trading Update

VMware (VMW, $94.05) shares have crossed above the 200-day moving average at $92.44. Traders are watching resistance from early December at $99. The RSI is rising from 62.4.

 
Wednesday, January 25, 2012, 4:35 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Citrix Dips on Guidance

Citrix Systems (CTXS, $66.23 after hours) shares are trading down 2% after hours on weaker-than-expected guidance.

 

The company reports Q4 EPS of 78 cents, two cents above the consensus estimate, on revenue of $619 million, vs. the consensus of $618.6 million.

 

For Q1, Citrix sees EPS of 49 cents to 51 cents (the consensus is 56 cents) on revenue of $555 million to $565 million, vs. the consensus of $561.4 million.

 
Wednesday, January 25, 2012, 1:22 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Fusion-IO Slammed

Fusion-IO (FIO, $25.18) shares are down 17% today on heavy volume of more than 5 million shares. Investors are concerned about the decline in gross margin in fiscal Q2 and increased competition from OCZ Technology (OCZ, $8.25).

 

But revenue growth at Fusion-IO, a provider of enterprise flash storage solutions, is quite impressive. In fiscal Q2, revenue rose 169% year over year and 13% sequentially to $84.1 million.

 

For fiscal 2012 (June), the company expects top-line growth of 65% to 70%. Fiscal 2011 revenue advanced 445% to $197.2 million. Non-GAAP gross margin in the current fiscal year is expected to be in the range of 54% to 56%, vs. 57.4% in fiscal 2011.

 
Wednesday, January 25, 2012, 9:28 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple Price Targets Get a Boost

Apple (AAPL, $457 pre market) shares are up more than 8% in pre-market trading. Here is a sampling of the new Wall Street price targets:

 

*Piper Jaffray--$670 from $607

*Canaccord Genuity--$650 from $560

*JP Morgan--$625 from $525

*BofA/Merrill--$610 from $515

*Citi--$600 from $500

*Deutsche Bank--$600 from $530

*BTIG--$600 from $580

*Credit Suisse--$$550 from $500

*Wells Fargo--$550 to $575 from $460 to $480

*ThinkEquity--$550 from $475

*ISI Group--$550 from $525

*OpCo--$510 from $460

 
Tuesday, January 24, 2012, 7:25 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple Surges Following Blowout Quarter

Apple (AAPL, $452.15 after hours) shares surged 7.5% in after-hours trading following the blowout fiscal Q1 (December) results.

 

Per-share earnings of $13.87 came in well above the consensus estimate of $10.08 and revenue of $46.3 billion easily beat the consensus of $39.0 billion.

 

I was particularly impressed with the iPad sales figure of 15.43 units in the face of increased competition from the Kindle Fire.

 

But the most impressive sales figure: 37 million iPhones. And Apple just launched in China, where demand “has been staggering,” according to CEO Tim Cook.

 
Tuesday, January 24, 2012, 4:21 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Fusion-IO Dips on Fiscal Q2 Results

Fusion-IO (FIO, $27.70 after hours), a provider of enterprise flash storage solutions, reports fiscal Q2 EPS of five cents, one cent above the consensus estimate, on revenue of $84.1 million, vs. the consensus of $76.4 million.

 

Deferred revenue rose 41% sequentially to $15.9 million. Non-GAAP gross margin declined to 51.1% from 58.8% in the year-ago quarter.

 

The stock is down more than 8% after hours because of concerns about the decline in gross margin and the small bottom-line beat.

 

For fiscal Q3, the company sees revenue of $85 million, above the consensus estimate of $80.75 million. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to come in around 50%.

 
Tuesday, January 24, 2012, 1:48 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Baird Bullish on Zynga

Shares of Zynga (ZNGA, $9.75) are up 6.9% today on heavy volume after Robert W. Baird started coverage at ‘Outperform’ with a price target of $12, saying the company is an attractive way to play the social and mobile gaming trends.

 

However, Evercore is not as bullish, initiating coverage at ‘Equal Weight’ with a price target of $9.

 

Zynga sports a market cap of $6.8 billion against a 2012 consensus revenue estimate of $1.43 billion.

 
Tuesday, January 24, 2012, 11:22 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Citrix Strong into Q4 Report

Citrix Systems (CTXS, $69.44) shares are up 1.9% today and are getting a boost from VMware’s strong Q4 performance. Earlier in the session, the stock crossed above the 200-day moving average of $69.47, hitting a high of $70.33. Citrix reports Q4 results tomorrow.

 

For more on Citrix, see TechStock Radar—January 23, 2012.
 
Tuesday, January 24, 2012, 9:24 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Needham Boosts VMware Price Target

Needham ups its VMware (VMW, $91.15 pre-market) price target to $115 from $105 following Q4 results. For the quarter, U.S. revenue rose 21% and international revenue advanced 34%. The firm thinks VMware is well positioned to continue to benefit from the datacenter refresh trend and private cloud build-outs.

 
Monday, January 23, 2012, 4:10 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
VMware Q4 Tops Estimates

VMware (VMW, $90.26 after hours) shares are up 5% after hours following the release of Q4 results.

 

For the December quarter, the company reports EPS of 62 cents, two cents above the consensus estimate, on revenue of $1.06 billion (+26.8% year over year), vs. the consensus of $1.05 billion.

 

For Q1, the company sees revenue of $1.015 billion to $1.04 billion, vs. the consensus of $1.02 billion.

 
Monday, January 23, 2012, 12:48 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Citrix Systems Q4 Earnings Preview

Citrix Systems (CTXS, $67.62) reports Q4 results after the close on Wednesday.

 

The consensus estimates: EPS of 76 cents (guidance was 75 cents to 76 cents; the high estimate is 79 cents) on revenue of $618.7 million. The high revenue estimate is $628.8 million, well above the guidance range of $610 million to $620 million.

 

In October, Citrix shares jumped 17% in one day after the company beat the Q3 consensus EPS estimate by 10% and the consensus revenue estimate by 3.7%.

 
Monday, January 23, 2012, 11:04 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Intel New 52-Week High

Intel (INTC, $26.88) shares this morning hit another new 52-week high.

 

Intel announces the acquisition of QLogic’s product lines related to the InfiniBand business. The $125-million cash deal is designed to expand Intel’s networking portfolio and provide scalable high-performance computing fabric technology.

 

The 2012 consensus EPS estimate is up three cents over the past week to $2.41 and the high estimate is $2.60.

 

For more on Intel, see TechStock Radar—January 19, 2012.

 
Monday, January 23, 2012, 9:32 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple Fiscal Q1 Earnings Preview

Apple (AAPL, $422.90) reports fiscal Q1 results after the close tomorrow. Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has crept up to $10.07 from $9.82. The high EPS estimate is $11.45.

 

Here are the high, low and median Wall Street estimates for the company’s key product segments:

 

iPhone

High—BTIG (Walter Piecyk): 35.0 million units

Low—Hudson Square (Daniel Ernst): 27.0 million units

Median estimate: 29.9 million units

 

iPad

High—Cowen (Matthew Hoffman): 14.87 million units

Low—Ticonderoga (Brian White): 12.24 million units

Median estimate: 13.5 million units

 

Mac

High—Jefferies (Peter Misek): 5.6 million units

Low—Susquehanna (Jeff Fidacaro): 4.52 million units

Median estimate: 5.04 million units

 

iPod

High—Deutsche Bank (Chris Whitmore): 15.56 million units

Low—BTIG (Walter Piecyk): 9.75 million units

Median estimate: 14.0 million units

 
Friday, January 20, 2012, 6:41 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Wall St Love for VMware Ahead of Q4 Results

I count seven positive Wall Street mentions or upgrades on VMware (VMW, $88.12) since December 19, including upbeat comments from Pacific Crest and JMP Securities today alone. The others: Goldman, OpCo, ISI Group, Wunderlich and ThinkEquity.

 

The general consensus is that Q4 channel checks were strong, indicating a solid earnings report on Monday.

 

In late December, ISI Group said VMware may have closed a “massive” enterprise license agreement in Q4 with a major tech company.

 

On December 22, when VMware shares were trading below $77, Wunderlich upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $95, saying the pullback from the November high of $104.38 presented a “compelling” opportunity for long-term investors.

 
Friday, January 20, 2012, 3:37 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Classic Tech Names Shine

Old tech is doing well today. All four of these classic tech names sport strong RSIs:

 

*Microsoft (MSFT, $29.46)—RSI 77.3  (+4.8% today, hit new 52-week high)

*IBM (IBM, $188.64)—RSI 59.4 (+4.5% today)

*Intel (INTC, $26.32)—RSI 65.9 (hit new 52-week high)

*Cisco Systems (CSCO, $19.88)—RSI 68.1

 
Friday, January 20, 2012, 1:27 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
MicroStrategy Rebounds

Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR, $113.72), a provider of business-intelligence solutions, are approaching the 50-day moving average at $114.71 after rebounding off the December low of $101.13.

 

The company could get some buzz next week as it holds its annual user conference in Miami. MicroStrategy will focus the meeting on its Big Data, mobile, cloud and social intelligence initiatives.


For 2012, the consensus revenue estimate of $639.5 million indicates expected growth of 13.6%.

 
Friday, January 20, 2012, 10:00 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Pacific Crest Bullish on VMware

Pacific Crest thinks investors should buy VMware (VMW, $88.05) into Q4 results because a solid report is expected. The firm’s price target is $106.

 

VMware’s Q4 earnings are out on Monday. The consensus estimates: EPS of 60 cents on revenue of $1.05 billion.

 

The stock has rebounded off the December low of $74.69.

 
Thursday, January 19, 2012, 6:35 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Intel's First Look at 2012

For 2012, Intel (INTC, $25.63) management said it expects revenue growth in the “high single-digits” on a percentage basis. The company looks for the PC business to bottom in January or February, driving an inventory rebuild in Q2 and Q3.

 

Intel reported 2011 revenue of $54 billion, so a 7% gain for the year would mean 2012 revenue of $57.7 billion, above the consensus estimate of $55.1 billion.

 

For Q1, Intel guided revenue to a range of $12.3 billion to $13.3 billion, with the midpoint in line with the consensus of  $12.8 billion.

 
Thursday, January 19, 2012, 3:28 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Cisco Wrestles With $20

Cisco Systems (CSCO, $19.86) nearly made it up to resistance at the $20 level, hitting a high of $19.95 earlier today. The stock was last above $20 in February 2011.

 

Some options traders are betting that Cisco shares will take out this important psychological barrier over the next month as volume has picked up in the February 20 and 21 calls. Also, there is active volume today in the April 23 calls.

 
Thursday, January 19, 2012, 11:34 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
LinkedIn Eyes December High

LinkedIn (LNKD, $72.32) shares continue their rally off the December 22 low of $60.25. The stock has moved back to the top of its recent range and is approaching the December high of $74.94. The RSI is rising from 62.7.

 
Thursday, January 19, 2012, 10:50 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
F5 Networks Rockets Up 12%

Shares of F5 Networks (FFIV, $121.90) are up more than 12% on heavy volume after last night’s strong fiscal Q1 earnings report and upbeat fiscal Q2 guidance. The stock has taken out the July 2011 high of $119.69. Next significant resistance: $129.92 from February 2011.

 
Thursday, January 19, 2012, 9:06 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Morgan Stanley Positive on Salesforce.com

Morgan Stanley reiterates its ‘Overweight’ rating on Salesforce.com (CRM, $107.70), saying recent checks and management meetings suggest the company’s upside momentum continues. The firm maintains its price target of $150.

 
Wednesday, January 18, 2012, 5:19 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
F5 Networks Jumps on Strong FQ1

F5 Networks (FFIV, $115.50 after hours) shares are up more than 6% after hours following a beat-and-raise report. 

 

For fiscal Q1 (Dec.), EPS of $1.03 beat the consensus estimate by two cents on revenue of $322.4 million (+19.9% year over year), vs. the consensus of $319.1 million.

 

For fiscal Q2, the company sees EPS of $1.05 to $1.07 (the consensus is $1.05) on revenue of $332 million to $337 million (the consensus is $330.5 million).

 
Wednesday, January 18, 2012, 12:55 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Oracle Recovering From December Drubbing

Oracle (ORCL, $28.42) shares have nearly recovered from their December 21 beating, which saw the stock drop more than 11% in one day following disappointing fiscal Q2 results.

 

A move back up to $28.87 would close the gap on the price chart from that day. Oracle has rebounded 14% off the December 21 low of $24.91.

 
Wednesday, January 18, 2012, 10:43 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple Hits New High

Apple (AAPL, $427.35) shares hit a new 52-week high this morning at $428.08. RBC Capital boosts its price target to $525 from $500 mainly because of iPhone demand.

 

The firm, which thinks Apple moved 32 million iPhones in the December quarter, expects fiscal Q1 revenue and EPS to come in at $40.2 billion and $11, respectively, up from the previous forecast of $38.6 billion and $10. The consensus estimates are $38.6 billion and $9.98.

 
Wednesday, January 18, 2012, 10:11 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Goldman: VMware Strong Q4 Expected

Goldman looks for Q4 EPS and licensing revenue at VMware (VMW, $83.25) to come in above expectations. The firm sees upside for bookings as well and thinks deferred growth is underestimated. Goldman has a price target of $125.
 
Tuesday, January 17, 2012, 5:38 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Meru Networks Rebounds 46%

Meru Networks (MERU, $4.63) continues its recent rebound, rising 4.2% today on above-average volume.

 

Shares of the provider of WLAN solutions are up 12% so far this year and have rallied 46% from the December 19 low of $3.16. The stock traded as high as $27.33 in February 2011.

 

Analysts expect Meru, which has a market cap of just $81 million, to remain unprofitable in 2012 on revenue of $109.9 million.

 
Tuesday, January 17, 2012, 1:19 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Check Point Jumps 8%; FBN Lifts PT to $70

FBN Securities ups its Check Point Software (CHKP, $54.97) price target to $70 from $65 following the release of Q4 results and 2012 guidance.

 

For the year, the company expects EPS of $3.10 to $3.20 (the consensus is $3.16) on revenue of $1.345 billion to $1.395 billion (the consensus is $1.38 billion).

 

Check Point shares are now up 8% today on heavy volume of 4.3 million shares.

 
Tuesday, January 17, 2012, 11:11 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Google Holds Support

Despite the drop from the recent high of $670.25, Google (GOOG, $630.54) shares continue to hold above the 50-day moving average of $617.86 ahead of the release of Q4 results on Thursday.

 

The consensus estimates: EPS of $10.49 (the high estimate is $11) on revenue of $8.4 billion (the high estimate is $8.72 billion).

 
Tuesday, January 17, 2012, 9:23 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Check Point Reports Solid Q4

Check Point Software (CHKP, $50.90) reports Q4 EPS of 84 cents, three cents above the consensus estimate, on revenue of $356.8 million (+12% y/y), vs. the consensus of $355.8 million. The company said the new datacenter offerings (61000 and 21400) were “significant contributors.”

 

On a geographic basis, management said the Americas (44% of total revenue) came in better than expected, while parts of Europe (40% of revenue) were quite robust.

 

Deferred revenue rose 19% year over year to $552.2 million. Deals worth greater than $50,000 represented 65% of order values and the company had 49 deals worth greater than $1 million each, vs. 44 in the year-ago quarter.

 

For Q1, Check Point’s revenue guidance of $305 million to $315 million is a little light at the midpoint as the consensus is $313.5 million. Per-share earnings are expected to come in at 69 cents to 73 cents, vs. the consensus of 72 cents.

 
Monday, January 16, 2012, 12:34 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Is NetApp Going to $29?

Shares of storage vendor NetApp (NTAP, $33.98) have been trying to hold the early-October low of $33.

 

The stock had rallied into the beginning of November, hitting a high of $43.06, before disappointing fiscal Q2 (October) revenue and fiscal Q3 guidance caused a one-day drop of 12% on November 17.

 

On Friday, NetApp shares hit a low of $33.50; the chart pattern indicates potential downside risk to the January 2010 low of $28.92.

 

Management blamed the fiscal Q2 revenue miss on weakness at nine major U.S. accounts. Of these nine, one was said to involve a competitive component, while the other eight were macro-related or company-specific issues.

 

While NetApp said it saw weak fiscal Q2 demand at the low end (partially because of customers moving up to the 3000 from the 2000 product line), unit demand for the 6000 series doubled year over year. Another positive: The number of large deals worth more than $1 million each rose 17% sequentially and 30% year over year.

 

For fiscal Q3, management was cautious with guidance—projecting revenue of $1.52 billion to $1.61 billion, vs. the consensus of $1.64 billion—because of concerns about drive availability caused by the floods in Thailand and the economic situation in Europe.  Management said the flooding issue would be “a major swing factor” for the second half of fiscal 2012.

 

Some analysts also blame increased competition from major rival EMC (EMC, $22.25). Credit Suisse earlier this month downgraded NetApp to ‘Neutral,’ saying EMC is the source of a lot of competitive challenges in the midrange, which is where NetApp derives about 70% of its revenue.

 

NetApp does boast a solid balance sheet: $4.6 billion in cash against convertible senior notes of  $1.175 billion and other long-term debt of $211 million. Net cash amounts to roughly $9 a share. The company has put into place an accelerated $400-million share buyback program.

 

NetApp recently traded at 14.2 times the fiscal 2012 (April) consensus EPS estimate of $2.39 and 12.3 times the fiscal 2013 consensus of $2.75. Back out the net cash per share and the FY12 forward P/E declines to 10.4.

 
Friday, January 13, 2012, 4:54 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Zynga Rises 4.9% After Poaching EA Exec

Zynga (ZNGA, $8.87) shares rose 4.9% today and managed to recover 11.3% from Monday’s low of $7.97.

 

The social-gaming company announced that it hired Barry Cottle, former VP of EA Interactive, as executive VP of business and corporate development.

 

For more on Zynga, Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see the January 2012 issue (TSP #119).

 
Friday, January 13, 2012, 2:26 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
LinkedIn Rebounds, Revenue Estimates Rising

Shares of LinkedIn (LNKD, $69.58) have rebounded 15% off the December 22 low of $60.25 and moved above the 50-day moving average of $69.27.

 

The 2012 consensus revenue estimate now stands at $822.9 million (the high estimate is $907.5 million), up from $807.5 million in early December and $756.5 million in early September. With a market cap of $6.7 billion, LinkedIn has a forward price-to-sales ratio of 8.1.

 

For more on LinkedIn, see TechStock Radar—January 11, 2012.

 
Friday, January 13, 2012, 12:24 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Falling Estimates at Juniper

Following the Q4 warning from Juniper Networks (JNPR, $20.86), estimates for 2012 have come down. The consensus EPS estimate fell 12 cents to $1.31, indicating growth of just 10% from the new 2011 consensus estimate of $1.19 (down from $1.25). The low estimate for 2012 is now $1.19 as well.
 
Friday, January 13, 2012, 10:09 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Citi Turns Bullish on Citrix Systems

Citi raises Citrix Systems (CTXS, $65.12) to ‘Buy’ and boosts its price target to $78 from $58 based on upside potential for the 2012 consensus estimates. The consensus EPS estimate of $2.79 indicates expected growth of 13%. The high estimate is $3.10.

 
Thursday, January 12, 2012, 3:30 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Qlik Jumps 6% on Jefferies Upgrade

Shares of Qlik Technologies (QLIK, $25.29), a provider of business-intelligence solutions, are up more than 6% today on active volume on a Jefferies upgrade to ‘Buy.’ The firm lifted its price target to $31 from $26 based on positive checks showing strong Q4 business trends and better-than-expected channel build for 2012.

 

Qlik shares were above $31 as recently as December 5, but then sold off, hitting a low of $21.83 on January 5.

 

For more on Qlik, Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers should see TSP #117 (November 2011), page 3.

 
Thursday, January 12, 2012, 12:19 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Cavium Rebounds Off Q4 Warning

Shares of chipmaker Cavium (CAVM, $32.57) are up nearly 4% today on active volume and have rebounded 19.7% off the December 28 low of $27.20. The stock fell as much as 4.5% that day following a Q4 revenue warning. Expectations are low for 2012: the consensus EPS estimate of 89 cents indicates a decline of 16%.

 

For more on Cavium, see TechStock Radar—December 27, 2011.

 
Thursday, January 12, 2012, 10:52 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Fusion-IO Rebound Turned Back

Fusion-IO (FIO, $25.25) shares have broken through the uptrend line off the December low of $21.26 after failing to make it up to the 50-day moving average at $29.84. The rebound topped out at $29.13 on January 6. There is downside risk to $23.62 over the short term.

 
Thursday, January 12, 2012, 9:13 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Susquehanna Positive on Citrix

Susquehanna says Citrix Systems (CTXS, $65.07) is set to beat Q4 estimates based on positive checks for server-virtualization demand, strong upgrade activity and larger deal sizes.  The consensus estimates: EPS of 76 cents on revenue of $618.8 million. The high EPS estimate is 79 cents. Susquehanna has a Citrix price target of $93.

 
Wednesday, January 11, 2012, 3:44 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Radware Takes Out Resistance

Shares of Radware (RDWR, $31.42), a provider of networking and security solutions, have pushed through their December high of $31.23. The RSI is strong at 69.2.

 

The stock, now firmly above its 200-day moving average at $29.83, is up more than 15% since the end of November. There’s resistance at $35.82 and $36.50 from July.

 

For more on Radware, see TechStock Radar—December 19, 2011.
 
Wednesday, January 11, 2012, 10:19 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Tech-Stock Prospector January Issue Now Available

The new issue of Tech-Stock Prospector (January 2012/TSP #119) has been posted to the website.

 

Here are some of the topics covered in the latest issue:

 

*Hot tech trends for 2012

*4 cloud-software buyout targets

*A winning play in storage

*Benefiting from the 4G upgrade cycle

*Google valuation analysis update

*Akamai investors applaud the Cotendo purchase

*Tibco Software tops expectations

*Red Hat expands its reach

*Buy Zynga on the dip?

*Acme Packet hits an air pocket

*Battleground stock for 2012: Salesforce.com

*Money Manager Focus: Seeing value in SGI

*How Ariba drives B2B commerce

*IPO Focus: Jive Software

*TSP Deal Report: A look at privately held Splunk

 

Sign up online for a subscription or call 800-392-0998

 
Wednesday, January 11, 2012, 9:37 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
T. Rowe Price Builds LinkedIn Position

T. Rowe Price lifts its stake in LinkedIn (LNKD, $65.96) to 15.2% from 13.2% at the end of November. The money manager now owns 5.98 million shares, up from 5.23 million shares.

 
Tuesday, January 10, 2012, 5:19 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
OpenTable Rebounds 36% Off November Low

OpenTable (OPEN, $42.98) shares added 7.5% over the past two sessions after Barclays Capital yesterday upgraded the stock to ‘Overweight’ with a price target of $46, saying data checks on the number of seated diners and restaurant additions indicate that Q4 results should at least meet consensus estimates.

 

OpenTable shares traded to a low of $31.54 on November 29 on competitive concerns.

 

For more on OpenTable, see TechStock Radar—December 20, 2011.
 
Tuesday, January 10, 2012, 3:14 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BlackRock Boosts Take-Two Stake

BlackRock disclosed this afternoon that it boosted its stake in videogame maker Take-Two Interactive (TTWO, $14.46) to 11.9%. The money manager now owns 10.59 million shares, making it the #1 holder. At the end of Q3, BlackRock owned 3.52 million shares.

 
Tuesday, January 10, 2012, 11:01 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Tech-Stock Prospector January Issue Now Available

The new issue of Tech-Stock Prospector (January 2012/TSP #119) has been posted to the website.

 

Here are some of the topics covered in the latest issue:

 

*Hot tech trends for 2012

*4 cloud-software buyout targets

*A winning play in storage

*Benefiting from the 4G upgrade cycle

*Google valuation analysis update

*Akamai investors applaud the Cotendo purchase

*Tibco Software tops expectations

*Red Hat expands its reach

*Buy Zynga on the dip?

*Acme Packet hits an air pocket

*Battleground stock for 2012: Salesforce.com

*Money Manager Focus: Seeing value in SGI

*How Ariba drives B2B commerce

*IPO Focus: Jive Software

*TSP Deal Report: A look at privately held Splunk

 

Sign up online for a subscription or call 800-392-0998.
 
Tuesday, January 10, 2012, 10:14 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Fidelity Lifts Stake in Fusion-IO

Fidelity discloses a 12.9% stake in Fusion-IO (FIO, $27.90). The mutual-fund firm now owns 11.2 million shares, up from 3.69 million shares held as of the end of Q3.

 

For more on Fusion-IO, see TechStock Radar—December 8, 2011.

 
Tuesday, January 10, 2012, 9:22 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BofA/Merrill Negative on Netflix

BofA/Merrill cuts Netflix (NFLX, $98.18) to ‘Underperform’ with a price target of $85, calling the recent surge in the stock “unwarranted.” Netflix ended 2011 at $69.29.

 

The firm sees rising content costs, increased expenses associated with the international expansion and reduced customer loyalty as three of the biggest risks.
 
Monday, January 9, 2012, 5:23 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Cirrus Logic Boosts Guidance, Stock Pops

Cirrus Logic (CRUS, $18.10, +6.6% after hours), an iPhone supplier, said it now expects fiscal Q3 (December) revenue to come in at $122 million, well above its guidance range of $102 million to $108 million.

 

According to CEO Jason Rhode, the last few weeks of the quarter were “much stronger than we had anticipated, indicating that demand remains robust following the holiday season.”

 

In October, Cirrus’ fiscal Q3 revenue guidance fell short of the consensus estimate at the time of $109.9 million, causing a one-day drop in the share price of 16.5%. The current consensus for the December quarter is $105 million.

 

For fiscal Q4 (March), Cirrus issues initial revenue guidance of $105 million, vs. the consensus estimate of $98.4 million.

 
Monday, January 9, 2012, 2:17 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Brocade Jumps on Takeover Speculation

Shares of Brocade Communications (BRCD, $5.83) are up 7.5% today on heavy volume following a Reuters report that “a handful” of potential buyers have submitted first-round bids for the networking company.

 

According to Reuters, Brocade has been in talks with “a least a half dozen potential private equity buyers” since hiring tech dealmaker Frank Quattrone in November.

 

The stock traded up to a high of $6.05 just after the release of the Reuters story. Brocade now has a market cap of $2.6 billion.

 
Monday, January 9, 2012, 1:01 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Barclays Bullish on Amazon.com

Barclays Capital now estimates that Amazon.com (AMZN, $178.28) sold 5.5 million Kindle Fire tablets in Q4, up from its previous estimate of 4.5 million units. For 2012, the firm sees Amazon selling 18.4 million tablets, above its previous forecast of 15.3 million units. Barclays lifts its Amazon price target by $5 to $225.

 
Monday, January 9, 2012, 12:39 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Third Point Looks For New Yahoo Board Members

According to DealBook, Third Point’s Daniel Loeb this week will be interviewing potential Yahoo (YHOO, $15.49) board candidates in the Silicon Valley area ahead of a possible proxy fight. The deadline is March 25 for him to put forth a slate of director suggestions. Any pressure to cause disruption to Yahoo’s board is a good thing.

 
Monday, January 9, 2012, 11:27 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BMO Capital Turns Cautious on Informatica

BMO Capital downgrades Informatica (INFA, $35.22) to ‘Market Perform’ and reduces its price target to $35 from $55 because it believes that overall software spending, particularly for large middleware projects, slowed toward the end of last year. The firm sees increased downside risk for 2012 guidance.

 

Informatica shares have already fallen sharply from the July high of $62.42. MicroStrategy (MSTR, $102.82) shares are off 4.1% today in sympathy.

 
Monday, January 9, 2012, 9:54 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple Target to $550 at Goldman

Goldman ups its Apple (AAPL, $425.84) price target to $550 from $520, saying there are several catalysts to drive the shares higher this year, including strong iPhone sales momentum and the introduction of the iPad 3. For the December quarter, Goldman raises its iPhone sales estimate to 31 million units from the previous estimate of 30.2 million units.

 
Friday, January 6, 2012, 4:03 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Imperva Gives Back

Shares of Imperva (IMPV, $30.01), a provider of networking-security solutions, went a bit too far too fast.

 

The company went public in early November at $18 a share, opened for trading at $23 and hit a high of $35.59 on Tuesday. Profit takers then came in, sending the stock down to a low of $29.83 today.

 

For more on Imperva, see TechStock Radar—November 9, 2011.
 
Friday, January 6, 2012, 1:00 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Ciena Rebounds 32%

Ciena (CIEN, $13.64) shares have rebounded 32% off the December 19 low of $10.30, crossing above the 50-day moving average at $12.34. The stock is now approaching resistance from November at $14.20. The RSI is strong at 65.3.

 
Friday, January 6, 2012, 10:00 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Pacific Crest Defends NetApp

Pacific Crest says its recent channel checks indicate NetApp (NTAP, $34.95) is having a better-than-expected January quarter. The stock has come down from a December high of $38.97 on concerns about increased competition from main rival EMC.

 
Thursday, January 5, 2012, 4:32 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple Rally Marches On

Apple (AAPL, $418.03) shares finished with a gain of 1.1% today and are now up 10.7% from the December low of $377.68 as the stock marches higher into the fiscal Q1 earnings report on January 24. Bulls are starting to eye the 52-week high at $426.70 from the middle of October as the next upside target.

 
Thursday, January 5, 2012, 12:08 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
MicroStrategy Tests Support

Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR, $105.59) are once again testing support in the $101 to $105 range after reversing off Tuesday’s high of $114.52. The stock remains below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Traders are watching the September 12 low of $100.86.

 
Thursday, January 5, 2012, 10:32 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
MKM Bullish on Take-Two

MKM Partners upgrades Take-Two Interactive (TTWO, $14.48) to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $20 because the firm now has a more constructive outlook for fiscal 2013 (March) given the videogame maker’s strong upcoming release slate and the expiration of the MLB contract, which has been a drag on earnings. The fiscal 2013 consensus EPS estimate is $2.47.

 
Thursday, January 5, 2012, 9:49 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
UBS: iPhone Sales Estimate Has Upside

UBS says its Apple (AAPL, $412.75) iPhone sales estimate for the December quarter of 30 million units could have upside potential. While some analysts have been trimming their iPad estimates because of increased competition from the Amazon Kindle Fire, iPhone sales estimates have generally been on the rise. Using historical international mix assumptions, UBS comes up with an iPhone sales scenario as high as 35.3 million units for the December quarter.

 
Wednesday, January 4, 2012, 3:28 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Netflix Jumps 10%

Netflix (NFLX, $79.69) shares are continuing their rally. After gaining 4.2% yesterday, the stock is up 10% today on heavy volume of more than 9.8 million shares. The company said its 20-million+ streaming members worldwide watched more than two billion hours of TV shows and movies in Q4, which roughly translates to an average of 33 hours a month each. With these statistics, Netflix is trying to show that its streaming subscribers find its service of value despite the company’s recent stumbles.

 
Wednesday, January 4, 2012, 12:29 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Bernstein Still Negative on Salesforce.com

Bernstein Research remains negative on Salesforce.com (CRM, $97.06), lowering its price target to $89 from $108. The firm estimates that Salesforce.com’s year-over-year growth peaked in fiscal Q3 2011 and has been declining ever since, partially masked by acquisitions.  While Salesforce.com has taken out smaller players in the CRM space by buying them, Bernstein thinks the company will have a lot of trouble trying to take market share from larger competitors Oracle, SAP and Microsoft.

 
Wednesday, January 4, 2012, 10:46 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Yahoo Presses On Under New CEO

Yahoo (YHOO, $15.89) announces this morning the hiring of PayPal president Scott Thompson as its new CEO, which indicates that a sale of the entire company is unlikely. Interim CEO Tim Morse will go back to being CFO. On the conference call, Yahoo chairman Roy Bostock says Yahoo will remain public because it’s simply too big to go private.

 
Wednesday, January 4, 2012, 10:25 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Cowen Bullish on Citrix Systems

Cowen upgrades Citrix Systems (CTXS, $62.28) to ‘Outperform’ based on an improvement in the underlying fundamentals in desktop virtualization and the belief that mobility will drive XenApp deployments.


Citrix trades at 25 times the 2011 consensus EPS estimate of $2.46 and 22 times the 2012 consensus of $2.79, vs. the 2012 expected EPS growth rate of 13.4%.

 
Wednesday, January 4, 2012, 9:37 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Credit Suisse Turns Negative on NetApp

Credit Suisse downgrades NetApp (NTAP, $35.61) to ‘Neutral’ and lowers its price target to $42 from $50 following a recent survey that shows expectations for slower growth in the midrange of the product portfolio and increasingly challenging competitive dynamics.

 
Tuesday, January 3, 2012, 4:20 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Google Hits New 52-Week High

 

Google (GOOG, $665.41) rose 3% today on heavy volume of 3.65 million shares, 38% above average daily volume. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $668.15.

 
Tuesday, January 3, 2012, 2:13 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Netflix Hopes for 2012 Rebound

After falling 60% last year, Netflix (NFLX, $72.43) shares are up 4.5% today thanks in part to word that the company’s original series Lilyhammer, starring Steven Van Zandt as a mobster sent to Norway as part of the federal witness protection program, premieres on the stream on February 6. All eight episodes of the first season will be available at launch.

 
Tuesday, January 3, 2012, 11:38 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Groupon Sinks 7%

Groupon (GRPN, $19.10) shares are down more than 7% this morning on heavy volume following a report from Susquehanna covering a recent survey that indicates an expected slowdown in daily deal usage by merchants during the next six months.

 

For more on Groupon, see TechStock Radar—December 30, 2011.

 
Tuesday, January 3, 2012, 10:39 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Cisco Ready to Move?

Traders are watching Cisco Systems (CSCO, $18.82) to see if the stock can take out recent resistance at $19.07 and $19.19 now that it has pulled away from the 50-day moving average at $18.25. The RSI is rising from 57.

 
Tuesday, January 3, 2012, 9:41 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
New Products To Propel Apple in 2012

Ticonderoga names Apple (AAPL, $411.33) its top IT hardware & networking pick for 2012 based on expected (or potential) new product offerings, including a smaller iPad, the iPhone 5 and iTV.

 

However, Morgan Keegan trims its Apple price target to $513 from $530 based on recent checks that indicate iPad and Mac sales for the December quarter came in slightly below expectations. For the December quarter, the firm lowers its EPS estimate to $10.10 from $10.24. The consensus estimate is $9.83.

   
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