Subscriber Login
 
  Username:
 
 
  Password:  
 
Forgot Your Password?
SUBSCRIBE NOW
30 Day Trial
  Online:
Subscribe here online
  Mail:
Print out Subscription Form
[pdf format | html version]
  Fax:
Print out Subscription Form
[pdf format | html version]
  Phone:
Subscribe now by calling:
(800) 392-0998
(toll-free)
     
 
 
TechStock Radar
E-mail: Rob@techstockprospector.com
Technorati
March 2010
Archives
 
Wednesday, March 31, 2010, 2:47 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Isilon Systems: A Q1 Winner

Shares of Isilon Systems (ISLN, $8.60), a provider of clustered storage and data management solutions, are up 25% YTD.

 

In February, Isilon announced that Q4 revenue rose 23% sequentially. It was the first profitable quarter for the company.

 

For 2010, revenue is expected to jump 23% to $153 million. Isilon is expected to earn six cents a share, vs. a loss of 17 cents last year.
 
Wednesday, March 31, 2010, 9:06 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Meru Networks: IPO Priced at $15

Meru Networks (MERU), a provider of enterprise wireless LAN gear, this morning priced its IPO at $15, which is at the high end of the expected range of $13 to $15.

 

The enterprise market for WLAN equipment is expected to grow to $3.6 billion in 2013 from $1.9 billion last year.


Meru, founded in 2002, competes with Cisco Systems, Motorola and Aruba Networks. Meru reported 2009 revenue of $69.5 million, up from $1.1 million in 2005.

 
Tuesday, March 30, 2010, 12:43 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Amazon.com: JP Morgan Sees Upside

JP Morgan is out with positive comments on Amazon.com (AMZN, $137.14), saying there’s plenty of upside remaining on the stock based on the firm’s $180 price target.

 

Margins should improve as Amazon expands its non-electronics categories, says JP Morgan.

 

Plus, the firm says Amazon should be able to generate $900 million in incremental revenue in the e-books space even if its market share dips to 30% (from 90% now) because of the overall expansion of the segment. There have been a lot of concerns about the Kindle’s growth prospects given increased competition from the iPad and Nook.

 

Also, Collins Stewart made a nice call on Amazon.com in early February when it upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ with the shares trading around $117. See TechStock Radar—February 8, 2010.

 
Tuesday, March 30, 2010, 8:33 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Netflix: FBR Sees $85
 

FBR Capital ups its Netflix (NFLX, $73.90) price target to $85 from $71 based on an expected acceleration in subscriber growth as competitors continue to close DVD rental stores, the incremental growth in kiosks slows and Netflix develops additional streaming channels.

 

The firm points out that Netflix is set to roll out its streaming service to 28 million Wii owners in the U.S. over the coming weeks.

 

For 2010, FBR now sees EPS of $2.82 on revenue of $2.12 billion, up from its previous forecast of $2.65/$2.09 billion. The consensus numbers: $2.49/$2.1 billion.

 

Caris yesterday raised its price target to $87.50 from $74 based on strong growth expectations for both 2010 and 2011.

 

For more on Netflix, see TechStock Radar—March 11, 2010.
 
Monday, March 29, 2010, 1:42 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
iPad Shipment Forecast Boosts Apple

Apple (AAPL, $232.17) shares hit another new 52-week high today as Morgan Stanley came out with a bullish report on the iPad, which is ready for launch in five days.

 

The firm says iPad suppliers are now looking to ship 8 million to 10 million units in calendar 2010, up from the prior estimate of at least 5 million units. This would indicate that Apple expects demand to be strong out of the gate for the new product.

 

The Morgan Stanley analyst points out that shipments don’t equate to expected sales for the year. For example, the channel could be filled up ahead of the holiday season, with inventory remaining going into 2011.

 

Morgan Stanley is staying with its 2010 iPad sales forecast of at least 6 million units. Many analysts are in the 3-million to 5-million range.
 
Monday, March 29, 2010, 1:16 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Birinyi Ups 2010 S&P 500 Target

According to Bloomberg, Birinyi Associates raised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 Index to 1,325, which implies a 14% gain from last week’s close and a 19% increase for the full year.

 

Founder Laszlo Birinyi said the firm is impressed with “the resilience of the market,” particularly the solid performances of some large-cap stocks, including Microsoft and General Electric. He thinks the negative case for the overall market is not very compelling at this point.

 

Bloomberg’s survey of strategists shows an average estimate of 1,243 for the S&P 500 by the end of the year, vs. 1,172 today.

 
Monday, March 29, 2010, 11:11 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
DreamWorks Animation: 'Dragon' Disappoints

DreamWorks Animation (DWA, $38.70) shares are off more than 9% this morning because of a disappointing opening weekend for ‘How To Train Your Dragon,’ which brought in $43.3 million at the U.S. box office, well below estimates of $60 million.

 

The company’s newest 3D movie also fell far short of the $59-million debut of ‘Monsters v. Aliens’ a year ago. This is a surprise because there are now more 3D theaters (2,178 vs. 1,550 when ‘Monsters’ was released), more awareness for 3D movies in general following the stunning success of ‘Avatar’ and higher ticket prices for 3D offerings.

 
Friday, March 26, 2010, 8:30 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple: Credit Suisse Ups Target to $300

Credit Suisse boosts its Apple (AAPL, $226.65) price target to $300 from $275 based on indications that the company is having an above-consensus March quarter.

 

The firm says Apple is running ahead of expectations in all key product segments.

 

Credit Suisse increases its March estimates: EPS of $2.57 on revenue of $12.26 billion from $2.27 and $11.45 billion. The consensus estimates: $2.36 and $11.77 billion.

 
Thursday, March 25, 2010, 9:12 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Qualcomm Boosts Guidance

Qualcomm (QCOM, $40.19) boosts fiscal Q2 (March) guidance thanks to stronger than expected performance in licensing revenue and favorable volume/product mix in the chipset business.

 

The company now sees EPS of 56 cents to 58 cents (up from previous guidance of 49 cents to 53 cents—the consensus is 53 cents) on revenue of $2.55 billion to $2.65 billion, vs. the consensus of $2.58 billion.

 

At the end of January, Qualcomm shares fell 14% in one day after the company said fiscal Q2 would come in below expectations because of ASP pressure. For more, see TechStock Radar—January 29, 2010.

 
Thursday, March 25, 2010, 8:31 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
eBay: Credit Suisse Sees $32

Credit Suisse ups eBay (EBAY, $26.94) to ‘Outperform’ and boosts its price target to $32 from $25 because of higher growth expectations for the PayPal unit, which is now the company’s main growth driver.

 

The firm says PayPal gross transaction revenue is capable of growing at a 14% CAGR over the next five years (up from the previous estimate of 12%) as the unit expands internationally and off eBay.

 

For more, see TechStock Radar—March 15, 2010.

 
Wednesday, March 24, 2010, 1:18 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
New 52-Week High for Apple

Apple (AAPL, $229.65) shares hit a new 52-week high of $230.20 ahead of the upcoming debut of the iPad.

 

According to Barclays Capital, Apple should be able to sell 1.2 million iPads in the June quarter even if the launch is “capacity constrained” at the outset. The firm expects nearly 5 million iPads to be sold in calendar 2010.

 

Over the past 30 days, the fiscal 2010 (September) consensus EPS estimate has risen four cents to $11.66, with the high estimate at $12.85. The fiscal 2011 consensus is up 11 cents to $13.29 during the same period.

 
Tuesday, March 23, 2010, 5:00 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Adobe Beats Estimates

Adobe Systems (ADBE, $37.05 after hours) rose 5% in after-hours trading following the release of above-consensus results for fiscal Q1.

 

For the quarter ended February, the company reported EPS of 40 cents, three cents above the consensus, on revenue of $858.7 million, vs. the consensus of $827.4 million.

 

For fiscal Q2, Adobe sees EPS of 39 cents to 44 cents (the consensus is 41 cents) on revenue of $875 million to $925 million, vs. the consensus of $860.4 million.

 
Tuesday, March 23, 2010, 3:01 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Polycom Sinks As Deal Talks End

According to Reuters, Apax Partners is no longer in talks to take Polycom (PLCM, $28.83) private.

 

The stock, off more than 6% today, is now trading below the March 16 close of $30.44. Polycom shares surged to a high of $34.14 the next day after the Financial Times said Apax was interested in purchasing the videoconferencing-equipment company.

 

Perhaps this sharp pullback will make Polycom cheap enough again to warrant another round of negotiations.

 

For more, see TechStock Radar—March 17 and March 19, 2010.

 
Tuesday, March 23, 2010, 8:25 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
iPad Awareness High

A new ComScore survey indicates that consumers are already as aware of the Apple (AAPL, $224.75) iPad as they are of the Amazon Kindle.

 

Among the 2,176 Internet users surveyed, 65% said they were aware of both devices, with 15% saying they’d seriously considering buying an iPad in the next three months.

 

The most likely iPad usages (ranked): browse the Web, e-mail, listening to music and reading books.

 

For those surveyed who already own an iPhone or iPod Touch, 52% said they would be willing or very willing to pay for newspaper and magazine subscriptions formatted for e-readers, vs. just 27% of non-Apple users.

 
Monday, March 22, 2010, 3:44 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Google Shifts Chinese Search Traffic

Google (GOOG, $557.96) shares came off their intraday high of $566.85 after the company said it has stopped censoring search results in China.

 

In a workaround, the company is redirecting Google.cn visitors to Google.com.hk in Hong Kong, which provides uncensored Chinese search, news and images.

 

The Chinese government could still block mainland China users from accessing the Hong Kong search engine.

 
Monday, March 22, 2010, 12:38 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Icahn Boosts Take-Two Interactive Stake

Carl Icahn has increased his stake in videogamer Take-Two Interactive (TTWO, $10.08) to 13.7% from 12.3% in January.

 

The activist investor now holds 11.58 million shares, with some shares bought as recently as Thursday and Friday.

 

The company, best known for its Grand Theft Auto franchise, continues to struggle to get new games out on time. Earlier this month, it pushed a couple new titles into later quarters of fiscal 2010 (October) and said another game could be delayed into fiscal 2011.

 

For more, see TechStock Radar—December 18, 2009.
 
Monday, March 22, 2010, 10:52 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
NetLogic Jumps 6.8%

NetLogic Microsystems (NETL, $30.68) is up more than 6% this morning after the stock split 2-for-1 at the open.

 

For more on NetLogic, see TechStock Radar—March 17, 2010.

 
Friday, March 19, 2010, 4:38 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Palm Off 29%

Palm (PALM, $4) closed down 29% today on extremely heavy volume of 124 million shares, 5X average daily volume, after some analysts set a $0 price target.

 

Canaccord Adams only sees things getting worse for Palm because of poor handset sales and a ramping cash-burn rate. The firm says it no longer places any value on Palm common shares.

 

With smartphone penetration in the U.S. at just 17% as of the end of 2009, it’s a shame that Palm has not been able to make it work because there’s still plenty of market opportunity out there.

 

But the company simply is not producing the kinds of smartphones that consumers are demanding, even though Palm management wants to blame everyone else (including Verizon sales reps) for the sales disappointments.

 

For more, see TechStock Radar—March 18, 2010.

 
Friday, March 19, 2010, 4:25 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Adobe Slips Ahead of FQ1 Results

Adobe Systems (ADBE, $34.67) fell 3% today on heavy volume of 16.2 million shares, more than double average daily volume, ahead of the release of fiscal Q1 (February) results next week.

 

Analysts are looking for Adobe to earn 37 cents on revenue of $827.4 million. The high EPS estimate is 40 cents.

 

The next major catalyst for Adobe is the release of Creative Suite 5, which is expected this spring.

 

After hitting a high of $38.20 in December, Adobe shares slipped to $31.28 in the middle of February before a recent rebound.

 

For more, see TechStock Radar—February 19, 2010.
 
Friday, March 19, 2010, 8:08 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Polycom: Caution Flag

Following a Financial Times report that Polycom (PLCM, $30.96) might be taken private at $37 a share, the stock on Wednesday rallied to an intraday high of $34.14.

 

However, it gave back more than two points yesterday, falling 6.5% after some brokerage firms said the stock was becoming fully valued.

 

Raymond James issued a downgrade to ‘market perform,’ saying the valuation is rich compared to the Cisco/Tandberg deal, and that Tandberg is growing faster than Polycom. BofA/Merrill said Polycom shares could fall as much as 30% if no deal is announced and the fundamentals disappoint.

 

For more, see TechStock Radar—March 17, 2010.

 
Thursday, March 18, 2010, 7:14 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Palm Hit By Inventory Glut

Palm (PALM, $4.85 after hours) shares dived more than 14% in  after-hours trading following the release of fiscal Q3 results and weak revenue guidance.

 

The problem: Palm stuffed the channel in the quarter ended February, shipping 960,000 handsets to retailers and distributors, but sold only 408,000 units (-29% sequentially). This means that there’s plenty of inventory that needs to be worked off.

 

For fiscal Q4, Palm expects revenue of less than $150 million, well below the consensus estimate of $306 million, as handsets are cleared out of the channel.

 
Wednesday, March 17, 2010, 3:58 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
NetLogic Rides The Networking Wave

NetLogic Microsystems (NETL, $58.66), a provider of next-generation communications chips, has been riding the wave of improving demand in the broadband networking and wireless segments.

 

NetLogic shares, which split 2-for-1 on March 20, are up 27% YTD.

 

Q4 revenue jumped 27% sequentially (excluding recent acquisitions) thanks to new enterprise product ramps at some important customers (including Cisco Systems and Juniper Networks) and new telecom infrastructure programs at Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson and Motorola.

 

Cisco represented 35% of total revenue in the December quarter, while Huawei and Alcatel-Lucent accounted for 11% and 10%, respectively.

 

The build out of advanced wireless networks has provided a big growth boost for NetLogic. In order to deal with increased traffic, many wireless operators (including AT&T, T-Mobile and Vodafone) are deploying HSPA+ networks, which deliver speeds up to 21 Mbps. These HSPA+ networks utilize an even greater amoint of NetLogic’s multi-core, multi-thread processors and knowledge-based processors.

 

The company also has broad exposure to 4G LTE network infrastructure, which has about 10X the capacity of HSPA+ and uses more advanced solutions than in 3G environments.

 
Wednesday, March 17, 2010, 8:57 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Autodesk: Goldman Gets More Positive

After upgrading Autodesk (ADSK, $29.31) to ‘Buy’ in the middle of February, Goldman today adds the stock to its ‘Conviction Buy List.’

 

Autodesk shares have rallied about 21% since Goldman’s bullish call last month. But the firm continues to see Autodesk as a rebound play as demand picks up for the company’s design software. The new price target is $35, up from $33.

 

Over the past 30 days, the fiscal 2011 (January) consensus estimate has risen four cents to $1.13 a share. The high estimate is $1.20.

 

For more, see TechStock Radar—February 17, 2010.

 
Wednesday, March 17, 2010, 8:23 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Polycom In Play?

Polycom (PLCM, $32.80 pre market) shares are up 7.7% in pre-market activity on a Financial Times report that Apax is in talks to take the maker of videoconferencing equipment private at around $37 a share in a deal that would be worth more than $3 billion.

 

The article says the private-equity firm has been negotiating with Polycom since November, following Cisco’s announced purchase of videoconferencing rival Tandberg in October.

 

Polycom shares fell to around $21 at the end of November (down from $28 in early October) on concerns about increased competition from the Tandberg/Cisco team, but have rallied significantly since then. The FT article says the rebound forced Apax and Polycom back to the negotiating table.

 
Tuesday, March 16, 2010, 3:22 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Intel Hits New 52-Week High

Intel (INTC, $21.98) pushed to a new 52-week high on heavy volume volume of 95 million shares.

 

There was some chatter this morning that the company would issue a positive earnings pre-announcement for the March quarter. Intel is set to release Q1 results on April 13.

 

The stock got an additional boost from the release of the Xeon 5600 server chip, which is said to deliver up to 60% greater performance than the previous-generation processor. Intel says datacenters can replace 15 single-core servers with one server and achieve an ROI within five months.

 

For more on Intel, see TechStock Radar—March 12, 2010.

 
Tuesday, March 16, 2010, 8:59 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Digital River: Argus Sees $37

Argus ups its Digital River (DRIV, $30.66) price target to $37 from $30, saying the company is working through its restructuing as it prepares to lose Symantec (a 30% revenue customer) in June.

 

The firm thinks Digital River is in turnaround mode. With most of the bad news already in the stock, there’s potential for upside surprises over the next few quarters.

 

For 2010, analysts are all over the board with their EPS estimates, ranging from 42 cents all the way up to $1.09.

 

Digital Rivers trades at 36X the 2010 consensus EPS estimate of 85 cents and 23X the 2011 consensus of $1.32.

 

For more, see TechStock Radar—March 12, 2010.

 
Tuesday, March 16, 2010, 8:25 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BlackBerry Users Ready To Bolt?

According to a survey by Crowd Science, Research in Motion (RIMM, $75.54) may need to worry about BlackBerry users jumping platforms.

 

That’s because the survey showed 39% of BlackBerry users would prefer an iPhone as their next smartphone, and 34% would prefer an Android-based handset.

 

Of course, the newness of Android may make it more attractive at this point, but these numbers should still be concerning for RIM management. With a 43% share of the U.S. smartphone market, RIM has a lot of users to lose.

 

On the other side, 90% of iPhone and Android owners are happy with their handsets and don’t want to switch.

 
Monday, March 15, 2010, 4:55 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
eBay Heats Up

eBay (EBAY, $26.28) shares traded to a new 52-week high today on active volume. Since the February 11 intraday low, eBay has added 22%. The stock is up 11.7% YTD.

 

In Q4, Wellington Management loaded up on eBay, increasing its position by 220% with the purchase of 18.4 million shares. The money manager now owns 26.7 million shares and is among eBay’s 10 largest investors. eBay traded down to $21.51 in early November.

 

For more on eBay, see TechStock Radar—December 3, 2009.
 
Monday, March 15, 2010, 4:18 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Another New High For Citrix

Citrix Systems (CTXS, $49) hit a new 52-week high today on heavy volume of 6.76 million shares, 62% above average daily volume.

 

Citi might be rethinking its ‘Sell’ recommendation from February 17 when the stock was trading at $43.62. Citrix shares are up 17.8% YTD.

 

For more on Citrix, see TechStock Radar—February 18 & 19, 2010.

 
Monday, March 15, 2010, 9:48 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Research in Motion Adds To Gains

Research in Motion (RIMM, $76.88) is adding to recent gains, rising more than 2% this morning. The stock has now rebounded 27% from the January 26 low of $60.40.

 

On a technical basis, the next significant upside level to watch is the gap on the price chart from September at $82.72.

 

Also, the 50-day moving average of $67.92 is approaching the 200-day moving average of $69.86 for a potential upside crossover.

 

For more, see TechStock Radar—February 26, 2010.

 
Friday, March 12, 2010, 5:19 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Intel: Ready To Run?
 

Intel (INTC, $21.27) shares have traded back to the top of their recent range. The stock has rallied 12% from the early February reaction low to $18.95.


Traders are now watching the January high of $21.55. A close above this level would indicate an upside breakout.

 

Needham this morning resumed Intel with a ‘Buy’ and a price target of $25, saying Intel shares are undervalued relative to historical muitples even as the company is poised to benefit from a PC upgrade cycle over the next several years.

 
Friday, March 12, 2010, 9:49 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Digital River: Signs of Life

Piper Jaffray and Collins Stewart both made good upgrade calls on Digital River (DRIV, $30.20) in early November when the stock was trading in the $22 to $23 range.

 

Digital River shares plunged in October after it was announced that Symantec (a 30% revenue customer) would not renew its contract when it expires in June 2010.

 

The stock fell to $21.83 on November 3, down from its 52-week high of $41.20.

 

Today, JMP Securities ups its price target to $34 from $31 after research indicates that McAfee might be testing some Digital River eCommerce solutions. A McAfee deal would be an unexpected positive catalyst if it were to materialize.

 

For more on Digital River, see TechStock Radar—November 4, 2009.

 
Friday, March 12, 2010, 8:06 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Google: OpCo Ups Target to $715

OpCo ups its Google (GOOG, $581.14) price target to $715 from $700, saying channel checks show better-than-expected Q1 pricing trends.

 

The firm also says there are indications of improved paid-click volumes in the U.S.

 

OpCo raises its 2010 EPS estimate to $27.97 from $27.50, well above the consensus of $27.39.

 
Thursday, March 11, 2010, 2:02 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Tech Leaders Rebound

The big tech leaders are back. Shares of Apple, Google, Amazon.com and Priceline.com are up an average of 14% since the end of January.

 

Priceline.com (PCLN, $240.64) is the biggest winner among the four, gaining 23.2% during the period.

 

Even Amazon.com (AMZN, $133.06), which was brought down in part by fears of new competition in the e-book market from the iPad, has bounced back off its February 1 low of $113.82.

 

For more, see TechStock Radar—January 22 & 13, 2010.
 
Thursday, March 11, 2010, 1:05 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Netflix: Brigantine Sees $80

Brigantine Advisors says Netflix (NFLX, $71.36) is on a roll with its Watch Instantly service. The firm raises its price target to $80 from $74, saying momentum will build for the streaming offering as new consumer-electronics devices are launched.

 

It was just last week that Netflix was felled by three broker downgrades. The stock traded down to $65.62 intraday, but has rebounded smartly over the past few sessions, hitting a new 52-week high today.

 

According to AllThingsD, Disney’s announcement today that it has extended its licensing agreement with Starz through 2015 is good news for Netflix because Starz content is part of Netflix’s streaming service.

 

Still, Netflix shares remain extended, up 29.5% so far this year.


For more, see TechStock Radar--March 3, 2010.

 
Thursday, March 11, 2010, 9:09 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Research in Motion Holds Share

According to ComScore, Research in Motion (RIMM, $75.04) held its U.S. smartphone market share steady in January, even adding a bit. RIM controlled 43% of the market, up from 41.6% in December.

 

Apple was #2 at 25.1%, down slightly from 25.3% in December. Microsoft remained in third place, but its share dipped to 15.7% from 18%.

 

No surprise given the debut of new handsets, the Android platform saw its share rise to 7.1% from 5.2%, displacing Palm in the 4th spot.

 

Palm saw its share dip to 5.7% from 6.1% in December.
 
Wednesday, March 10, 2010, 4:30 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Google Jumps on Volume Surge

Google (GOOG, $576.45) surged more than 16 points today on heavy volume of 5.6 million shares, 80% above average daily trading volume.

 

The rally was sparked in part by CEO Eric Schmidt’s comments about Google trying to “soon” resolve censorship and hacking issues in China, although he would not give a specific timetable.

 

Google shares have now rebounded about 11% from the February 25 low. The stock is back above its 50-day moving average of $561.57. The gap on the price chart from January at $572.25 has been filled, so the next level to watch on the upside is $594.20.

 

For more, see TechStock Radar—March 2, 2010.

 
Wednesday, March 10, 2010, 2:04 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
MKM Less Negative on Citrix

After downgrading Citrix Systems (CTXS, $46.81) to ‘Sell’ on December 18 when the stock was trading around $39, MKM Partners today moderates its cautious tone.

 

In December, MKM blamed a slow ramp for desktop virtualization and the realization that Citrix wasn’t going to be acquired anytime soon.

 

Fast forward nearly three months, MKM upgrades Citrix to ‘Hold,’ with the stock now trading in the mid $40s.


The firm says the current quarter is tracking in line with expectations and thinks there’s evidence that the desktop virtualization market is materializing, albeit at a moderate pace. MKM lifts its price target to $47 from $37.

 
Wednesday, March 10, 2010, 9:06 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Juniper Holds Tough

Shares of Juniper Networks (JNPR, $29.89) didn’t react negatively to yesterday’s new router announcement from Cisco. In fact, the stock actually hit a new 52-week high.

 

While Cisco’s CRS-3 Internet core router is said to be 12 times faster than rival products, this doesn’t mean competitors are standing still.


Avian Securities expects Juniper (and partner Alcatel-Lucent) to debut a router with similar performance and capacity by the end of the year.

 

Cisco is set to release the CRS-3 in Q3.

 

Juniper shares are up 12% YTD, vs. 9.1% for Cisco.
 
Tuesday, March 09, 2010, 11:39 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
QLogic: More Buyout Chatter

There’s more chatter about a potential QLogic (QLGC, $19.25) buyout, with heavy trading activity in the March and April 20 calls.

 

The provider of storage network infrastructure solutions has been the subject of buyout speculation in the past, with Cisco Systems sometimes mentioned as a potential purchaser.

 

The rumor today is that EMC is taking a look. This is the same rumor that made the rounds back in April 2009 following Broadcom’s hostile (and eventually pulled) offer for Emulex, QLogic’s main competitor.
 
Tuesday, March 09, 2010, 9:00 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple: Broadpoint AmTech Sees $280

Citing the iPad launch as the next bullish near-term catalyst, Broadpoint AmTech gets more positive on Apple (AAPL, $219.08), upping its price target to $280 from $265.

 

With the launch date set, the firm raises its iPad sales estimate for calendar 2010 to 4 million units from its previous forecast of 2.2 million units.

 

Over the longer term, Broadpoint AmTech says the recurring revenue stream associated with expected media/content available on the iPad is underappreciated.

 
Tuesday, March 09, 2010, 8:12 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Ariba Rebounds

Shares of Ariba (ARBA, $13.02), a provider of spend-management solutions, have rebounded more than 17% over the past 30 days. The stock is approaching its 52-week high of $13.99, hit on January 5.

 

The company’s software allows organizations to manage relationships with global suppliers, source goods/services and process/pay invoices.

 

In Q4, Fidelity upped its position in Ariba by 63% with the purchase of 3.47 million shares. The mutual-fund company is now the #1 investor, holding 9 million shares. Ariba traded down to $10.40 a share in early December.

 
Monday, March 08, 2010, 4:54 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Palm Continues To Retreat
 

Palm (PALM, $5.55) shares fell 2.8% today on heavy volume of 31.8 million shares, nearly double average daily volume.

 

From its March 1 low, Palm did manage to rebound about 11% to the intraday high of $6.47 last Wednesday. But then more bulls threw in the towel (and short sellers regrouped), driving the stock down for three sessions in a row.

 

According to Macquarie USA, Palm’s revenue for the May quarter could be hit by continued weak sales at Verizon Wireless. The firm cut its price target to $4 from $10. The stock traded as high as $14.17 as recently as January 19.

 

For more, see TechStock Radar—February 25, 2010.
 
Monday, March 08, 2010, 3:17 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
New 52-Week High For Cisco

Cisco Systems (CSCO, $25.94) is up nearly 3% on heavy volume of 75 million shares. Earlier in the session the stock hit a new 52-week high of $26.09.

 

Cisco shares have gained 15% since the end of January.

 

Cisco is set to make an announcement tomorrow about technology that it says will “forever change the Internet.” It’s likely to be new equipment to boost the speed of Internet services, and possibly an expansion of the company's telepresence initiative into the mass consumer market.
 
Monday, March 08, 2010, 8:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Research in Motion: BMO Capital Sees $88

BMO Capital ups Research in Motion (RIMM, $69.50) to ‘Outperform’ with a price target of $88 based on expectations for a beat-and-raise earnings report on March 31.

 

The firm says RIM’s smartphone sales have been strong across all regions, with the 9700 and 8520 experiencing the highest demand. Competition from a CDMA iPhone now appears to be more of a ways off, which gives RIM the ability to add more market share in the smartphone segment, according to BMO.

 

For the February quarter, the firm sees RIM coming in with EPS of $1.32, five cents above the consensus estimate. Its estimate for the May quarter is 14 cents above the consensus.

 
Friday, March 05, 2010, 5:34 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Ciena Jumps 14% on Volume Surge

Shares of telecom-equipment maker Ciena (CIEN, $16.01) jumped 14% today on extremely heavy volume of 24.7 million shares, nearly 4X average daily volume.

 

The rally was sparked by an upgrade to ‘Outperform’ from Cowen & Co., which expects Ciena’s revenue growth to accelerate once the company completes the acquisition of Nortel’s Metro Ethernet Networks business. Ciena expects the transaction to close later this month.

 

Over at Credit Suisse, the firm says Ciena is well positioned to address two important secular growth drivers: wireless backhaul upgrades and an optical upgrade cycle driven by the need for increased bandwidth.

 

There was also some chatter of a possible Ciena takeover, with option volumes exploding in the March 15, 16, 17 and 18 calls.
 
Friday, March 05, 2010, 1:36 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
SanDisk Hits New 52-Week High

SanDisk (SNDK, $33.71) shares are up nearly 5% today on active volume, hitting a new 52-week high.

 

Investors expect a positive supply/demand environment for NAND flash to continue at least through the first half of the year.

 

Last Friday, SanDisk raised its Q1 revenue guidance to $925 million—$1 billion from $875 million—$950 million. The consensus estimate was $937 million. Management now expects 2010 revenue to come in at the high end of its guidance range of $4 billion to $4.4 billion.

 

Morgan Stanley made a nice call on February 17 when it upgraded SanDisk to ‘Overweight’ when the stock traded at $27.34, down from its January high of $32.08.


For more on SanDisk, see TechStock Radar—December 22, 2009.

 
Friday, March 05, 2010, 8:55 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple Sets iPad Release Date

Apple (AAPL, $214.40 pre market) shares are up nearly 2% in pre-market activity after the company announced the iPad (Wi-Fi version) would be available in the U.S. on Saturday, April 3. The Wi-Fi + 3G model will be launched in late April.

 

Apple will take online pre-orders for both models starting March 12.

 

This puts to rest any chatter that the iPad would be delayed because of component shortages.

 
Friday, March 05, 2010, 8:12 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Brocade: OpCo Sees Value

OpCo performed an updated sum-of-the-parts analysis on Brocade Communications (BRCD, $5.81) following the recent dip in the stock.

 

The firm estimates that Brocade’s storage unit alone is worth more than the current share price. Applying a conservative multiple to the struggling IP/Ethernet business (Foundry), OpCo comes up with a combined fair value of $7.50 to $8.50 a share.

 

OpCo recommends purchasing Brocade shares on this weakness (down 23.9% YTD).

 

For more on Brocade, see TechStock Radar—February 23, 2010.
 
Thursday, March 04, 2010, 11:54 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Tivo Jumps 50% on Court Ruling

Tivo (TIVO, $15.69) shares have skyrocketed more than 50% after the company won an appeals court ruling in its ongoing legal battle with Dish Network and EchoStar related to “time warp” DVR technology.

 

The stock traded as high as $16.39 just after the Bloomberg news story.

 

Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers were alerted to Tivo as a special-situation event in July 2009 at $9.11 a share.

 
Thursday, March 04, 2010, 9:45 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Gartner Lifts WW PC Growth Forecast

Gartner now sees worldwide PC shipments rising 20% this year, up from its previous forecast of 13% shipment growth made in December.

 

For 2010, the IT research firm looks for shipments to total 366.1 million units and spending to increase 12% to $245 billion.

 

Mobile PCs are expected to drive 90% of overall PC growth over the next three years, says Gartner.

 
Thursday, March 04, 2010, 9:04 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Western Digital: Brean Murray Still Upbeat

Brean Murray advises buying shares of Western Digital (WDC, $38.64) on weakness.

 

During the last two sessions, Western Digital shares have dropped 4.5% on concerns about rising inventories and softening pricing. The stock is well off its January 5 high of $47.44.

 

March through May is the seasonally softest period when it comes to demand for HDDs. But Brean Murray remains confident in its estimates for the March and June quarters, and continues to think Western Digital can earn more than $6.00 a share this year.
 
Wednesday, March 03, 2010, 1:05 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Akamai Boosted By Merriman Upgrade

Akamai Technologies (AKAM, $28.32) shares have gained more than 3% today following a bullish call from Merriman, which upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ based on more reasonable pricing trends in the content-delivery network market.

 

The firm is also upbeat on growth in IP traffic volumes and the fact that Akamai faces limited competition in value-added services, which now account for more than half of the company’s revenue.

 

Akamai shares are up 11.7% YTD.
 
Wednesday, March 03, 2010, 12:30 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Netflix Snags Three Downgrades

Netflix (NFLX, $67.51) shares are under pressure today after getting hit by three brokerage downgrades, including a cut to ‘Underperform’ from BofA/Merrill.

 

The firm maintains its $70 price target on Netflix, but says the stock is fully valued considering “very optimistic” growth expectations. BofA/Merrill thinks the number of Netflix subscribers would need to nearly triple by 2015 to justify the current share price. Given the ever-increasing competition in the streaming-content space, that’s highly unlikely.

 

Netflix trades at 27X the 2010 consensus EPS estimate of $2.49.

 
Wednesday, March 03, 2010, 8:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple iPad Ready For Launch

The Apple (AAPL, $208.85) iPad should be available for sale on March 26, according to reports.

 

The Examiner says Apple retail employees will begin training on the iPad as early as next week, with TV commercials possibly starting on March 15.

 

There was an analyst report out earlier this week that said supply delays could limit the number of iPads available at launch. But Digitimes reports today that iPad component makers say supplies are on schedule, with Foxconn set to ship 600,000 to 700,000 iPads in March and 1 million units in April.

 
Tuesday, March 02, 2010, 4:43 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Google Rebounds

Google (GOOG, $541.06) shares have put together three winning sessions in a row after hitting a low of $520 on February 25.

 

The stock held its 200-day moving average of $504.31 and the RSI indicates a positive divergence off the latest low.

 

A close above $547.50 would be a positive sign over the short term.

 
Tuesday, March 02, 2010, 11:26 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
UBS Ups Dell

UBS ups Dell (DELL, $13.89) to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $16, saying the stock presents an attractive entry point after the recent pullback from the January high of $15.20.

 

UBS thinks a strong corporate PC refresh cycle and better-than-expected growth in the Asia-Pacific region will allow Dell to maintain market share.

 

The fiscal 2011 (January) consensus EPS estimate of $1.22 is down from $1.25 at the start of February.

 
Tuesday, March 02, 2010, 10:28 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Palm: BofA/Merrill Cuts Target to $5

After slashing its Palm (PALM, $6.06) price target to $10 (from $20) on February 23, BofA/Merrill has reduced it further to $5.

 

Palm’s M&A options are limited by its weak negotiating position following reduced revenue guidance, says the firm.

 

Some analysts are concerned about a potential cutback in developer support as Palm’s outlook dims and new competition from Motorola, which will debut its first Droid handset on AT&T on March 7.

 

For more on Palm, see TechStock Radar—February 23, 2010.

 
Monday, March 01, 2010, 3:33 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Acme Packet Powers Up

The momentum crowd is chasing shares of Acme Packet (APKT, $17.40). After rising 11% last week, the stock is up more than 4% today on active volume, hitting a new 52-week high of $17.68 earlier in the session.

 

Just since the end of January, Acme Packet—a provider of session border control solutions for IP networks— has seen its shares jump 68%.

 

Clearly some big investors were impressed with CEO Andy Ory’s presentation at last week’s Goldman Sachs tech conference. Ory talked up Acme Packet’s growth potential in the $2-billion mobile gateway sector.

 
Monday, March 01, 2010, 11:42 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
More Takeover Chatter For Monster

Monster Worldwide (MWW, $14.27) is up more than 2% on a rumor that News Corp may be interested in buying the jobs website.

 

Monster has been the subject of much takeover speculation during the past several months. But nothing has ever come of it.

 

In fact, just the opposite has taken place, with Monster doing some buying of its own. The company earlier this month agreed to purchase Yahoo’s HotJobs website for $225 million in cash.

 
Monday, March 01, 2010, 8:34 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Skyworks Ups Guidance

Skyworks Solutions (SKWS, $15.27) raises its fiscal Q2 guidance, citing “strong demand for mobile Internet, smart grid and new analog applications."

 

The chipmaker now sees revenue for the March quarter of $230 million to $235 million, vs. the consensus estimate of $225.6 million and the previous estimate of $225 million. Per-share earnings are expected to come in at 22 cents to 23 cents, vs. 21 cents previously.

 

As recently as November, Skyworks shares traded as low as $10.05.

 

In Q4, Wellington Management (the #1 investor) increased its Skyworks position by 137% with the purchase of 10.3 million shares and now owns 17.99 million shares.

 

Fred Alger Management ($11 billion in long equity assets/26% tech weighting), the #2 investor with 11.49 million shares, counts Skyworks as its second-largest holding after Apple.

 

The #3 investor, Frontier Capital ($6.4 billion in long equity assets/32% tech weighting), also lists Skyworks as its #2 holding.

   
  1401 Q Street NW, Suite 603, Washington DC 20009.
(800) 392-0998 | customer-service@techstockprospector.com
©Copyright 2010 by Tech Stock Prospector, LLC. All Rights Reserved.